Political scion Tarique Rahman set to lead Bangladesh after BNP win

By Arun Devnath

 

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party won the first election since a 2024 youth-led uprising ended 15 years of increasingly authoritarian rule, local television networks reported, clearing the way for its once-exiled leader to take power. 

Broadcasters said the BNP crossed the threshold for a majority in the 300-seat parliament in Thursday’s election. This would set up Tarique Rahman — who ended a 17-year exile in London and returned to Bangladesh in December — to try and rebuild the developing nation’s garment-reliant economy.

 

A youth-led movement two years ago toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a violent street revolution fueled by grievances over joblessness and lack of economic opportunities. The election puts the BNP, a mainstream party that advocates social welfare and Islamic values, on the cusp of retaking power in the world’s eighth-most populous country for the first time in two decades.

 

 

The incoming administration will inherit an economy battered by inflation, a banking sector riddled with non-performing loans and corruption ranked as among the worst in the world. It will also look to balance ties with India and China at a moment when New Delhi is increasingly wary of Beijing’s expanding footprint along the Bay of Bengal, and Washington is recalibrating its South Asia strategy.

 

China is Bangladesh’s top trading partner, and any government in Dhaka is likely to keep deepening that relationship to protect long-term economic security, according to Constantino Xavier, a foreign policy fellow at Brookings India.

 

Rahman, 60, is the eldest son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman, the founder of the BNP who was assassinated in 1981. During the election campaign, Rahman has sought to cast the BNP as a centrist bulwark against what it describes as the radical agenda of its rivals. 

 

Jamuna TV, a private broadcaster, said the BNP secured 170 seats, while Somoy TV put the party at 165, with both reporting the rival Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance won 45 seats. DBC News, Desh TV and News24 also projected a BNP majority.

 

The party also claimed victory on its verified Facebook page. “Winning a majority of seats, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is going to form the government,” the BNP Media Cell wrote.

 

Rahman is set to take over from the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, which has governed Bangladesh for the year and a half since Hasina’s ouster. Yunus is expected to begin the formal transition of power within a week.

 

The BNP overcame an unusual alliance of Islamist parties and student leaders to secure victory. The positive result comes after a long stretch in the political wilderness for the party, which was hollowed out under Hasina’s regime following her Awami League’s landslide victory in December 2008. During that time, the BNP boycotted multiple elections and its leadership was jailed or exiled. 

 

The student-led movement that helped topple Hasina has fractured. As idealism collided with electoral realpolitik, defections and internal rifts weakened the push for a centrist alternative.

 

“I don’t think we can write anyone off in Bangladeshi politics,” said Pearl Pandya, a senior analyst for South Asia at ACLED, an organization that provides data and analysis on political violence. “Tarique Rahman is back after years in exile.”

 

Investors and multilateral lenders will watch whether Rahman can deliver institutional reforms while navigating ties with India and China and managing a $5.5 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund.

 

A return to power would follow a high-stakes campaign where Rahman focused on a “31-point formula” designed to appeal to urban youth. The plan proposes a bicameral legislature and new checks on executive power, including a two-term limit for the premiership.