Intimations of apocalypse

Diverse crowds of NGO demonstrators lend passion and colour to the UN climate change negotiations held in November or December each year. I vividly recall a session in Montreal in an icy December. On our way to the conference venue, we were greeted by impassioned demonstrators, standing in deep snow, holding aloft banners demanding an “end to global warming”. These men and women might have been forgiven for taking a more benign view of a phenomenon that might actually make their native habitat a more hospitable place in deep winter but their devotion to a universal cause was undimmed by such selfish considerations. But for the constant pressure exerted by climate activists, the outcome of inter-governmental negotiations would have been even more modest than they actually are.

Nowhere is there a greater need for climate activism than in the United States in the Age of Trump. The president of the world’s largest economy maintains with a straight face that climate change is a concept “created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive” and has served notice of his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
 

Hopefully, the book under review will help counter the climate complacency so evident in the United States today. Mr Wallace-Wells, deputy editor of the New York magazine, has delved selectively into the scientific literature to produce an apocalyptic account of the multiple impacts of climate change. He paints a picture of massive floods and forest fires, economic collapse, pestilence and war induced by climate change. His declared intention is to shock and alarm the reader. Each chapter of the book, he states, “contains by rights, enough horror to induce a panic attack in even the most optimistic of those considering it”. Here are a few samplers from his rich offerings. 

“At two degrees [ the current goal of limiting global warming], the ice sheets will begin their collapse, 400 million more people will suffer from water scarcity, major cities in the equatorial band of the planet will become unlivable, and even in the northern latitudes heat waves will kill thousands each summer.”

“There is a 51 per cent chance, this research suggests, that climate change will reduce global output by more than 20 percent by 2100, compared with a world without warming, and a 12 per cent chance that it lowers per capita GDP by 50 per cent or more by then, unless emissions decline.

“2.4 million American homes and businesses, representing more than $1 trillion in present-day value, will suffer chronic flooding by 2100…”

The Uninhabitable Earth:

A Story of the Future 

David Wallace-Wells

Allen Lane, Rs 799, 320 pages

“[In Africa] by just 2030, projected temperatures are expected to cause 393,000 additional deaths in battle.”

Science does not enable us to “predict” the precise scale of climate change or its impacts. Given the large number of unknown or variable factors, we can only project alternative “scenarios” offering an approximation of what might happen. Mr Wallace-Wells recognises this fact but frequently ignores it, selecting the most horrific scenarios and then substituting “will” for “may” in describing the impact. His aim is to create shock and awe.

How should we respond to the threat posed by climate change? Mr Wallace-Wells touches briefly on various technological approaches but provides no clear answers. The point he emphasises is that, in the absence of political will, technology alone cannot provide an adequate response to climate change.

The book appears to be addressed principally to an American audience but it is universal in its scope. In fact, the United States is identified as only the second-most vulnerable country in the context of climate change impacts, the first position being reserved for India! Though it has little responsibility for causing climate change, India will be its major victim. “India’s share of climate burden,” writes Mr Wallace-Wells, “was four times as high as its share of climate guilt” — showcasing the “moral logic of climate change at its most grotesque”. Despite climate injustice, he points out, India is one of the only seven countries (among the 195 signatories of the Paris accord) that are in range of meeting their targets under the agreement.

The reader is left to ponder on the appropriate policy option for India. Climate change is not the only critical challenge this country faces in the first half of the 21st century. We must also meet the challenge of rescuing a billion people from the shackles of absolute poverty. There can be no trade-off between development and climate change goals. Without rapid development, we will be unable to generate the financial and human resources needed to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Creating a physical infrastructure capable of withstanding powerful cyclones, typhoons and floods requires massive financial resources. So does drought-proofing agriculture. In the absence of trained manpower, we will be unable to switch over to the new industrial and agricultural technologies required to adapt to climate change. Inclusive economic and social development is the sine qua non of an effective response to climate change. 

For the first time in the history of our planet, climate and its associated phenomena are being shaped by human activities. Simultaneously, for the first time in history, there is a real prospect of rescuing mankind from the curse of mass poverty. Meeting these twin challenges requires a massive global shift from hydrocarbons to clean renewable energy as early as possible.

The reviewer is a retired foreign service officer