Clock is ticking: World ill-prepared for climate change risks

India may face $7-bn agriculture loss by 2030

When China and another 132 nations in the G77 group raised their voice against the developed countries refusing to discuss a proposal to measure emissions from the time of the industrial revolution, the world had taken note. Looking back, that seems like a trailer leading up to the serious repercussions of climate change, the essence of which has been captured by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II report. The world is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate, is the most screaming statement emerging from the study.

The report cites severe impact on weather, agriculture and economy of Asian majors like India and China due to climatic conditions. In India, the estimated countrywide agricultural loss in 2030 is pegged at over $7 billion, that may severely affect the income of 10 per cent of the population. However, this could be cut by 80 per cent if cost-effective climate resilience measures are implemented.

Violent conflicts, food shortages and serious infrastructure damage due to climate change have been predicted in the coming decades. At a time when the West is going slow on its commitments to reduce the impact on climate change, the IPCC report says nobody will be left untouched. Also, flooding and heat waves will leave their mark across the world.

While pointing at the lack of preparedness of countries, the report states that there are opportunities to respond to such risks. But those will be difficult to manage with high levels of warming. It also bats for inter-country co-operation for adaptation measures.

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report on climate change considered the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems, the observed impacts and future risks of climate change, and the potential for and limits to adaptation. The Working Group I was released last September, while Working Group III report will be released in April and synthesis report will be out by October.

"We live in an era of man-made climate change," said Vicente Barros, Co-Chair of Working Group II. "In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face. Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future."

In a sign of the West waking up to the cause, US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that "the clock is ticking" and urged countries to match the urgency of response with the scale of science. Pointing at seasonal changes in rainfall, the report called for an integrated coordination among countries on water management - Indus and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins covering Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan.

The world's most populated cities (Tokyo, Delhi and Shanghai) are located in areas with high risk of floods, it said quoting reports. It added that by 2070, the top Asian cities in terms of population exposure (including all environmental and socioeconomic factors) to coastal flooding are expected to be Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok, Rangoon, and Hai Phong. Asia includes 15 of the global top 20 cities for projected population exposure and 13 of the top 20 for asset exposure.

Agriculture worst affected

A changing climate was projected to reduce monsoon sorghum grain yield by 2-14 per cent by 2020, with worsening yields by 2050 and 2080. This comes with a warning that the Indo-Gangetic Plains are under threat of a significant reduction in wheat yields. "This area produces 90 million tons of wheat grain annually, which is about 14-15 per cent of global wheat production," it added.

In China, the total loss due to drought projected in 2030 is expected to range from $1.1-1.7 billion for regions in northeast China and about $0.9 billion for regions in north China (CWF et al., 2009), with adaptation measures having the potential to avert half of the losses. A total of 309 coordinating lead authors, lead authors, and review editors, drawn from 70 countries, were selected to produce the report.