Monsoon 2016 ends with 3% less than normal rains

The southwest monsoon ended the 2016 season with 3 per cent deficit against India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s earlier projections of rains being "above normal", making it the third time in 10 years when the Met office predictions have gone wrong.

"The 2016 southwest monsoon has ended with normal rainfall," the ministry of earth sciences said on Friday.

A delay in the onset of La Niña and unsupportive Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden Julian Oscillation seemed to have made the Met's prediction go awry.

IMD had predicted the southwest monsoon to be above normal at 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus four per cent. However, there were pockets of distress in the overall comfortable situation with Karnataka, Punjab, parts of Gujarat and Kerala getting less than their usual share of rains.

Rains between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal, while that between 105 and 110 per cent of the LPA is considered above normal. LPA is the average rainfall that India received in the previous 50 years starting from 1951, and is estimated to be around 887 millimetres.

Till date, India has received 862 millimetres of rainfall during the 2016 southwest monsoon season, against a normal of 887.5 millimetres.

East, comprising of states such as West Bengal, Bihar, Assam, Odisha, and the Northeast, received 1,281.5 millimetres from June 1 to September 30, 11 per cent less than the normal for the period at 1,438.5 millimetres. Central India received the maximum at 6 per cent above normal rains. The region got 1,034.1 millimetres of rainfall against a seasonal normal of 975.5 millimetres. North-West India, comprising of the grain bowls of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, got around 584.2 millimetres, 5 per cent below the normal of 615 millimetres. South received around 661.5 millimetres of rainfall which was 8 per cent below the normal of 716.1 millimetres.

The southwest monsoon had entered the country after a week's delay but its progression was steady and it covered the entire country on time. In fact, rains in July, the most crucial month for kharif sowing, was around 7 per cent more than normal, making it one of the best July downpour in last several. However, from the middle of August, the intensity of the rains ebbed and there was no further big build-up of clouds, though showers continued intermittently, particularly over central India. In September, too, there was no big change, which pulled down the overall average to five per cent deficit. However, the middle of September saw a revival of sorts.

Most weathermen had expected the withdrawal to be delayed for at least a forthright. This should augur well for the coming rabi crop as it will leave a good amount of residual moisture in the soil, particularly in central India.

Good rains in July and a part of August pushed India's kharif sowing to record highs, with area under pulses leading the way. There was an almost 30 per cent rise in acreage.

The Centre, according to the first advanced estimate, said it expected 2016 kharif foodgrain production to be a record high of 135 million tonnes, almost 11 million tonnes more than last year's; pulses production were expected to increase to 8.75 million tonnes against 5.54 million tonnes last year.

A bumper kharif harvest should bring down food inflation.

The good rains also filled up the reservoirs. Till Thursday, water levels in 91-odd reservoirs was around 117 billion cubic meters (BCM), which was 74 per cent of the full capacity.