IMD forecasts normal monsoon rainfall 'over the country as a whole' in July

However, prevailing conditions suggest no favourable conditions may develop for further advance of southwest monsoon in Rajasthan, west UP, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi and Punjab, says IMD

Southwest Monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

In the forecast for July, IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said rainfall is not expected to be good in the first week, but it is likely to pick up in the second half of the second week of July.

"Monthly rainfall for July 2021 over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 per cent of Long Period Average),” the IMD said.

The IMD will issue the forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season towards the end of July or beginning of August.

"The latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and that there is enhanced possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during July to September 2021. As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins," the weather department said.

No favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of southwest monsoon into parts of Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi and Punjab during next 5-6 days, said IMD earlier on Thursday.

Prevailing meteorological conditions, large scale atmospheric features and the forecast wind pattern by dynamical models suggest that no favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of southwest monsoon, the weather department said on Twitter. "Hence, subdued rainfall activity is very likely to continue to prevail over Northwest, Central and Western parts of Peninsular India during next 5-6 days. Isolated/scattered thunderstorm activity accompanied with lightning & rainfall is also likely over these regions during this period," said IMD earlier on Thursday in a series of tweets. 

"For parts of northwest India, southwesterly winds may bring some respite but discomfort due to heat wave will continue for next 4-5 days. We are not expecting monsoon to progress for at least a week," Naresh Kumar, senior scientist, IMD Delhi told news agency ANI. 

IMD further said that under the influence of strong moist southwesterly winds at lower tropospheric levels from Bay of Bengal to northeast and adjoining east India, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and northeastern states during next 5 days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Bihar on July 1, 2, Arunachal Pradesh on July 2, 3  and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and Assam and Meghalaya during July 1-4.

"Due to likely dry westerly/southwesterly winds from Pakistan to northwest India at lower levels, Heat wave conditions in isolated/some pockets over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, north Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and north West Madhya Pradesh during next 2 days," said IMD.

Moderate to severe thunderstorm accompanied by frequent cloud to ground lightning very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during next 24 hours. This may cause injuries leading to casualties to people and animals staying outdoors, warned the weather department.