Rains 32% below normal

Met dept says rains will increase over central India only in first week of August

The southwest monsoon was 32 per cent below normal in the first 15 days of July, key month for sowing of kharif crops. Large tracts of central and southern India remained dry.

This could have serious impact on the final output of pulses and oilseeds, unless there is a pick-up in the second half of this month. July is traditionally when there is the largest amount of rain in the four-month monsoon.

The distribution will also be critical. The impact of less rain could be minimised if evenly spread.

The latest update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed from July 1 to 15, the rains were 54 per cent less than normal over central India, comprising Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. It was 60 per cent less than normal over southern India.

Rains has been deficient or scanty in 238 districts (39 per cent), while excess or normal in the other 61 per cent.

IMD data also showed that so far, from June 1 to July 15 the monsoon was six per cent below normal across the country, mainly due to good rain in June. However, there are pockets which have got 20-40 per cent less than normal rain so far this year, starting June 1. It is in these pockets that chances of drought are high, if there is no strong pick-up.

For instance, the Marathwada region in Maharashtra has had 45 per cent below normal rain between June 1 and July 15. Madhya Maharashtra has had 31 per cent below normal. Gujarat has 54 per cent less than normal rains, with 24 per cent less in Saurashtra and Kutch. And, Kerala's is 32 per cent below normal.

IMD said in the next 15 days, the monsoon would remain normal to above normal over the northern, eastern and northeastern parts but increase over central India only in the first week of August.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet said rain was expected to revive over northern India, including Delhi, in the next few days.

The water levels in 90 major reservoirs on Thursday was 51.62 billion cubic metres, 133 per cent of the storage the corresponding period last year and 112 per cent of the 10-year average. In central India, the level in the reservoirs is 42.3 billion cubic metres, better than at the corresponding period last year.

Water in the reservoirs is crucial if the monsoon falters in the second half, as reliance on them will increase for rabi sowing.

Till last week, kharif crops were sown in 44.51 million hectares, 62 per cent more than the area covered during the same period in 2014, showed official data. As the kharif was sown in 105.28 mn ha last year, around 43 per cent of the total normal area has been covered.