Rains may hit Rabi output by 15%, stoke food inflation: PHD Chamber

The recent rains in the major agrarian states of northern India, including Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, could hit Rabi crops production by 15 per cent and stoke food inflation in double digits trajectory again, according to an analysis by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Rabi crops such as wheat, barley, oilseeds, sunflower, pulses, including gram, peas, massor, beans and vegetables such as peas, cabbage, cauliflower , turnip, carrot , etc, in these states have been severely affected by widespread rains and strong winds.

According to PHD Chamber, unseasonal showers have dampened the mood of wheat farmers in Punjab and Haryana ahead of the harvest season. It is the second time during the past three weeks that untimely rains and hailstorms have damaged the wheat crop in the two states and neighbouring Himachal Pradesh. The rain has weakened the wheat plant stems, damaged the grain and affected their colour. The harvest period has also been pushed back by at least 15 days. Rabi crops production may fall short of estimates by 20 million tonnes.

According to 2nd advance estimates, the production is estimated at around 135 million tonnes during 2013-14 which may not be materialised due to unwanted rains. Rabi output might fall to 115 million tones against the estimates of 135 million tones in 2013-14. The overall foodgrain production, including Rabi and Kharif crops, might fall to 243 million tonnes only during the current financial year against the 2nd advance estimates of 263 million tonnes.

States including Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, etc, producing vital foodgrain, commercial crops and perishables and contributing 73 per cent in total foodgrain production have been impacted by unwanted rains and hailstorms.

"The fall in foodgrain production scenario may stoke food inflation as the demand supply gap in various food items is already on the borderline",said Mr Sharad Jaipuria, President PHDCCI.