Recovery tracker: Signs of uptick as power, rail freight pick up steam

Several high-frequency indicators, including power generation and rail freight, showed signs of a pick-up in economic activity. Traffic congestion and emission, however, remained flat.

Business Standard also tracks pollution levels and visits to various categories of places. These micro and sector-specific data provide a more current picture of the economy ahead of the release of the official macroeconomic statistics, such as GDP and Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which appear with a lag of few months.

Power generation was up four per cent on average on year-on-year basis during the week ended December 7, indicating a rise in energy demand from the commercial and household sector. Electricity generation, however, was flat on Y-o-Y basis in the previous week, indicating demand moderating from the pre-festival bump-up in generation. 

For nearly a month, starting mid-October, power generation was higher by 12 per cent on Y-o-Y basis on average. Cumulatively, the power generation is now down 4.2 per cent during the current financial year so far. 

Power generation had fallen by nearly 30 per cent compared to 2019 during the height of the lockdown as factories shut down and offices remained closed. Normalisation occurred towards the end of July. It had slipped below last year’s levels post-DiwaIi and saw a recovery last week (chart 1).

The railway freight was the biggest surprise and showed double-digit growth in volumes. In all, Railways carried 26.53 million tonnes (MT) of cargo during the week ended Sunday, December 7 — up 11.3 per cent on Y-o-Y basis. Railways total freight earnings during the week was up 9.8 per cent on Y-o-Y basis to Rs 2,666.4 crore. Passengers volume and revenues, however, continue to contract. Passenger volumes were down 25.5 per cent Y-o-Y last week, while passenger earnings were down 33.1 per cent compared to the corresponding week last year. Railways are yet to normalise the passenger services after they were completely stopped in March and April this year following the lockdown (chart 2).

Traffic congestion numbers from global location technology firm TomTom International show that New Delhi’s traffic was around 37 per cent lower during the week ended December 7 compared to the same week in 2019. This is in line with the traffic congestion seen in the previous week. Mumbai showed a small increase in traffic congestion. Traffic congestion in the port city was down 29 per cent last week on Y-o-Y basis against 31 per cent dip in the previous week (chart 3). 

Business Standard also tracks levels of nitrogen dioxide (NOx) in the air. Mumbai’s emissions based on Bandra locality data shows a 98 per cent decline from 2019 — a level unchanged in around a month now. Emissions in Delhi are now showing a downward trajectory possibly due to the farmers’ protest. Emissions in Delhi were around 5.6 per cent higher last week than in the same week in 2019. And, emissions in Delhi were up by 40 per cent Y-o-Y during the week ended November 30 (charts 4, 5). Search engine Google’s data is as of December 4. Visits to retail and recreation spots were down 28 per cent on average last week on Y-o-Y basis against 29 per cent Y-o-Y decline a week ago. The data suggests pick-up in visits to grocery and pharmacy stores and parks (chart 6).