Third wave may hit by August-end, but it isn't inevitable: ICMR official

The third Covid-19 wave is likely to hit the country at the end of August but it isn’t inevitable, said Dr Samiran Panda, Head of Epidemiology & Infectious Diseases,at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

The ICMR official cautioned the states to be more careful and said that they need to look into their own Covid-19 data and check at which stage of ‘epidemic they are in.’

“States need to look into their own Covid data and check, at which stage of the epidemic they are in. The third wave could happen around the end of August but it isn't inevitable. We need to be more careful,” said Dr Samiran Panda.

Dr Panda pointed out that the possibility of third wave as some states still have vulnerable populations.

He said, “Early Covid restrictions stopped the infection on time & left many people unaffected. So, there is a distinct possibility of the third wave because some states still have vulnerable populations.”

He listed out four things that could lead to a potential third wave. The first instance he listed is drop in the immunity acquired in the first and second wave of Covid-19.

Secondly, he said that there could be a variant of the coronavirus that can bypass the acquired immunity. Third, the new variant may not be able to bypass immunity but can circulate fast in the population and fourth, the premature easing of Covid-19 curbs by states, Dr Panda said.

Dr Samiran Panda comments comes a day after Dr Randeep Guleria, All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) director said that a possible third wave of Covid-19 can be precipitated by waning immunity among people, a more transmissible variant of the coronavirus and relaxations by governments in lockdown curbs.

The Indian Medical Association earlier this week had said that the third wave is "inevitable and imminent" and urged state governments to not allow large gatherings.

India on Friday reported 38,949 cases to take its total caseload to 31,026,829.