UP, Maharashtra may bear maximum cost of Covid-19 vaccination: Analysts

As Covid-19 vaccination picks up in the 18-44 age group states are scrambling to procure doses, with analysts predicting that the likes of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra would bear the maximum costs on account of their demographics.

Maharashtra managed to procure only 2.5 million vaccine doses in May for this population segment — which is estimated to be 55 million in the state.

“This is according to the allotment done by the Centre. The Centre decides how much each state can buy, and this is also linked to vaccine production,” a senior state government official said.

Meanwhile, the Mumbai civic body has called off the global tender for 10 million doses that it had floated to procure vaccines directly. It received some bids (mostly for Sputnik V) where the bidders were unable to establish any direct connection with the manufacturers. The bids were thus cancelled, and the tender was called off, ending the Brihan­mumbai Municipal Corpor­ation’s dreams of procuring vaccines through this route.

According to sources in companies, vaccine makers get regular queries from state governments but the distribution is done according to a quota decided by the Centre.

On their part, some of the states have questioned the vaccine dosage allotted by the Centre for the 18-44 age group. According to state family health and welfare director Laxman Singh Ola, Rajasthan has not yet received any doses this month nor is it likely to receive any till June 9.

“There needs to be a more equitable distribution of vaccines among the states. Right now some states are at a disadvantage. Rajasthan has proved its capability to vaccinate 600,000-700,000 people a day. The states will have to bear the fiscal burden for the 18-44 population, so they should have a say in the allotment,” said Ola. Rajasthan has placed an order of 35 million doses, of which it has so far received only 1.8 million, according to state government sources.

Others like Gujarat have been better placed. “The Centre has been liberal in its allocation. We have placed an order of 30 million doses. We have started vaccinating the 18-44 demographic across all districts and there has been good response from the young population,” said Gujarat’s National Health Mission director M A Pandya.

On the other hand, the procuring company for the state, Gujarat Medical Ser­vi­ces Corporation Ltd (GMSCL), has enough resources to buy the vaccine.

“Our task is to buy the vaccines for Gujarat and we are doing it based on the Centre’s allocation. We have some operating funds and have also taken additional approvals. We have enough budgetary resources,” said Prabhav Joshi, managing director of GMSCL, without divulging fiscal details.

According to state government sources, Gujarat has allocated over Rs 3,200 crore for Covid-19 vaccines.

Analysts point out that states such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh are likely to bear the maximum costs. An analyst at Emkay Research said, “Our costing structure assumes that the Centre takes the vaccination load of 70 per cent of the population above 45 years and the private sector takes the rest 30 per cent largely because the Centre is getting 50 per cent of the total vaccines produced in India.”

The Centre bears no financial burden for the 18-44 age bracket, while states take the lead by covering roughly 60 per cent of the population and the private sector the rest of it, the analyst added.

“Our cross-state assessment of vaccination cost shows that UP and Maharashtra are likely to bear the maximum expenses. While seen from the lens of each state’s gross output or gross domestic product, states like UP, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh lead the pack,” the analyst said.

The vaccination cost depends on the population being skewed towards the sub-45 age group.