After initial hiccups, normal rainfall likely in next 3 months

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said the southwest monsoon during the next three months would largely be normal, barring some parts of northwestern and southern India.

According to the Met office, which released its second annual forecast for the 2012 monsoon season, rainfall in July, August and September could be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). LPA is the average rainfall in the country from 1951-2000, and is estimated at 89 centimetres. Rainfall under 96 per cent of LPA is categorised as below normal, while anything between 96-104 per cent is seen as normal.

On Friday’s outlook, which is less than IMD’s April forecast of 99 per cent of the LPA, said rainfall across the country in July was likely to be 98 per cent of the LPA, and in August it would be 96 per cent of the LPA. Both are within the normal range. This may bring respite to millions of farmers, as July and August are critical months for sowing of kharif crops.

The IMD said rainfall over northwestern India this year was expected to be 93 per cent of the LPA. “Broadly, some places of Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana could receive less rainfall this year,” Director General of IMD, L S Rathore, told Business Standard. On a cumulative basis, rainfall across the country will be normal this year, he added.

But, less rain in northwestern parts of the country is unlikely to impact sowing and yield of kharif crops as almost 80 per cent of farmland is irrigated, Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Care Ratings, said.

Sabnavis pointed out that IMD’s lowering its forecast from 99 per cent of LPA in April to 96 per cent in June is a matter of concern.

“I feel certain crops like pulses, coarse cereals in some areas will be vulnerable if the rainfall is less than normal,” Sabnavis said.

His apprehension is not unfounded as IMD’s forecast shows that apart from Northwest India, rainfall over some parts of southern Peninsula could also remain less than normal. “Our assessment is some parts of interior Karnataka, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra could receive below normal rainfall,” IMD’s Rathore said.

On the critical El Nino weather phenomenon, the Met office said most weather models suggest that there was a 60 per cent chance of El Nino remaining neutral during the four-month monsoon season that ends in September. However, there remains a 37 per cent chance of emergence of weak El Nino conditions. “I feel El Nino impact has lessened quite a bit in the last few weeks, and its probability of impacting Indian monsoon is also less now,” Rathore added.

The southwest monsoon entered India on June 5, after a delay of four days. Since then, its progress has been rather uneven raising concern over the overall monsoon this year. IMD said between June 1 to 21, rainfall across the country has been 76 per cent of LPA.