Modi-Sharif talks to thaw frosty relations?

Both leaders expected to take up contentious issues - from terrorism to trade - today

After more than a year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to have a bilateral meeting with Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif on Friday, in the Russian town of Ufa.

Both leaders, meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, are expected to take up all contentious issues, from terrorism to trade. In the earlier such bilateral meeting, in May 2014, both sides had decided the foreign secretaries (FS) of both countries were to meet regularly to further the pending issues, including Jammu & Kashmir.

Apparently, there is little chance of composite dialogue getting revived although the meeting will impart a positive signal in terms of both sides talking. The meeting is largely seen as a mending of ties after the imbroglio surrounding cancellation of FS-level talks and ceasefire violations, sources told Business Standard.

According to Pakistan, their PM will be looking forward to this chance of maintaining “cordial and cooperative ties with all neighbouring countries, including India”.

“It was in pursuit of this objective that the PM would be meeting the Indian PM for a comprehensive exchange on all issues of common interest,” went a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) in Islamabad.

According to experts, nothing substantial is expected but it sends a positive indication that both leaders are ready to talk. "The level of optimism is quite low and nothing substantial is going to come out of it, except for a few commitments of regular meetings at the level of secretaries. This is because although the civilian government of Pakistan might be ready to engage, especially because of economic concerns, the military in Pakistan is not interested at all. However, it depends how long both leaders meet in Russia, as that will determine whether all issues were discussed or not, including Kashmir," said Nandan Unnikrishnan, vice-president and senior fellow, Observer Research Foundation.

Last year, the FS-level talks were called off by India after Pakistan's high commissioner, Abdul Basit, met Kashmiri separatist leaders on the eve of the talks.

Foreign secretary S Jaishankar had paved the way for both the leaders to meet. In March, under Modi's 'Saarc Yatra' initiative, Jaishankar met Pak counterpart Aizaz Chaudhary, raising a number of issues related to cross-border terrorist influx and ceasefire violations.

"A resumption of bilateral dialogue is unlikely because Indian policy makers are not convinced of Pakistan's resolve to improve bilateral relations. India is also concerned about the civil-military imbalance in Pakistani governance, which is in favour of the military," said Sameer Patil, fellow for national security, ethnic conflict and terrorism studies at Gateway House, a foreign policy think tank.

India had earlier also suggested a strategy in terms of regular contact between both directors-general of military operations (DGMOs) and border security forces.

The DGMOs had earlier met on December 2013, after various incidents along the border came to light. It was then decided the DGMOs would have a regular discussion over a hotline every week. However, this has become irregular and incidents of ceasefire violation have continued.