BS Number Wise: How consumption is set to outstrip food grain production

Consumption will exceed food grain production but the world is not on the brink of a hunger crisis

In 1798, British philosopher and economist Thomas Malthus proposed in an essay that population growth would outpace food production to cause shortages and famine. The “Malthusian catastrophe” was widely criticised though it was not the first grim theory around population. Three years later, the first official census of the United Kingdom was conducted.

Malthus was proven wrong, but the theory found resonance during the 1960s when newly independent countries wanted to be self-sufficient in food. Their reason was not as much population sustenance but freedom from the shackles of dependence. India’s Green Revolution was a step in that direction. Times changed. Decades of peace and globalisation prompted most countries to liberalise trade rules for food commodities.

For instance, rice trade increased 22 per cent between 2014 and 2022. Trade in wheat is expected to increase between 2017-18 and 2021-22 (July-June period), without any change in production over these years.

As the old world order is challenged, countries again fear running out of food grains. Earlier this week, India banned most wheat exports. Indonesia banned palm oil exports, and Europe is being criticised for its farm-to-fork strategy promoting sustainable farming, with animal feed and agriculture industry groups saying it will undermine regional food security.

A Business Standard analysis found that the problem of food insecurity — the number of people with insufficient access to food — has been piling up for years; the Russia-Ukraine crisis has only accentuated it. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s report, “The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World”, shows that worldwide, the number of moderately or severely food insecure people rose to 30.6 per cent in 2020, compared to 22.6 per cent in 2014. In Africa, food insecurity increased from 47.3 per cent to 59.6 per cent during this period as countries here focused on export crops instead of staples.

Meanwhile, production has not kept pace with consumption. Data from the United States Department of Agriculture shows that global consumption of corn, wheat and rice will outstrip production in the coming year. While this would not translate into shortages immediately, a sustained period of production and consumption gap may cause problems.

Malthus’ claim appears true to some, but what he did not perceive was human capacity for innovation. Within a few decades of his musings, mechanisation improved farm productivity. Will technology come to the rescue?