Container volumes may see uptick after trend reversal

Analysts prefer Gateway Distriparks, Concor valuations unattractive

Container volumes which have been on a downtrend are expected to improve in March and April. After falling every month since September, container volumes ended in the positive territory growing 2.4% y-o-y in February.

Ankur Periwal and Chirag Negandhi of Axis Capital say that while overall volumes continued to be under pressure in February due to adverse macroeconomic situation, there were some initial signs of uptick in March in export import volumes from Europe and the US. Container volumes are expected to rebound going ahead on economic recovery and capacity expansion at key ports, they add.

While February is lean month, a low base last year helped the segment report a small increase. While the segment had a 9% fall in volumes on a sequential basis, volumes are expected to improve in March and April.

In the listed space, analysts are bullish on Gateway Distriparks, while Container Corporation (Concor) is perceived to be expensively valued. The Concor stock has been on an uptrend over the last month and with returns of 12% outperforming the Sensex.

The price run up, according to analysts, was on expectation of a progress on the GST front and reversal of a hike in haulage charges. While Gateway Distriparks too has outperformed over a quarter, the stock fell 3.3% today to Rs 131.75 as it turned ex-dividend. The company had declared a Rs 3 dividend per share.     

With exports growing at the highest pace in 12 months at 4.2%, trade deficit came down sequentially. Mihir Jhaveri and Prateek Kumar of Religare Institutional Research say that the low-base effect (from a year ago) is likely to support volume growth ahead. The improvement in trade deficit in February should marginally support margins of container operators, they add.