El Niño seen arriving too late to hurt monsoon

India’s monsoon may escape the effects of a possible El Niño event that can bring dry weather to the world’s top cotton grower and second-biggest wheat and sugar producer.

“Mostly it may not have any impact on rains because the El Niño probably won’t develop until later this year,” said D S Pai, head of the long-range forecast division of India Meteorological Department. “As of now it’s not indicating. There will be clarity when more information is available in April and May.”

Forecasters globally have been increasing odds that El Niño will develop this year as temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Niño ‘watch’ on February 28, indicating the likelihood of the pattern forming this year is about 50 per cent.

Six climate models suggest thresholds may be reached by July. 

The US Climate Prediction Center raised its odds to 50 per cent by the end of the year while Malaysia puts a 50 per cent chance of development between September and November. The 2015-16 El Niño was the strongest since the record event of 1997-98.

A late El Niño may miss India’s monsoon season that runs from June to September, accounting for more than 70 per cent of rain and watering more than half of all farmland. Rainfall was normal in 2016 following two years of deficit that curbed output of sugarcane, wheat and pulses. 

A good monsoon encouraged farmers to expand crop planting and the government predicts India’s grain harvest will reach an all-time high on record rice, wheat and pulses production. 

Bloomberg