 "Here are the rating agencies' forecasts on India in the last 2 months")
Today, Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on India's sovereign ratings to negative from stable but retained the ratings at the lowest investment grade. Fitch expects economic activity to contract by five per cent in the current financial year from the strict lockdown measures imposed since 25 March 2020, before rebounding by 9.5 per cent during the next year. The rebound will mainly be driven by a low-base effect.
S&P on June 10, retained India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, saying that while risks to growth are rising, the economy and fiscal position will stabilise and begin to recover from 2021 onwards.India's long-term rating was affirmed at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook while the short-term rating was held at 'A-3'. S&P has forecast India's economy to shrink by 5 per cent this fiscal.
Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) On June 2nd, has downgraded the Government of India's foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer ratings to Baa3 from Baa2. The rating agency has also downgraded India's local-currency senior unsecured rating to Baa3 from Baa2, and its short-term local currency rating to P-3 from P-2. The outlook remains negative.
It will really be a long road to recovery and going back to the pre-Covid-19 gross domestic product (GDP) rate in India will not be possible for the next three fiscals, says the latest report by Crisil, which expects the Indian economy to contract 5 per cent in fiscal 2021.
Global rating agency DBRS Inc (DBRS Morningstar) on May 22, said it has assigned a 'BBB' sovereign credit rating to India.
After the government announced graded relaxations in the lockdown, domestic rating agency Icra on May 4th, estimated that the country's GDP might contract by as much as 20 per cent in the June quarter and is expected to overcome some lost ground in the remainder of the year but still close 2020-21 down by up to 2 per cent.