IIP likely grow 9.1% in FY09, says CMIE

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent economic think tank, expects India’s industrial production to grow by 9.1 per cent in the current fiscal, even as the government estimate for the three months ended June dipped to 5.2 per cent.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, in a press statement, said sectors like machinery (with a weight of 18 per cent in the index for industrial production), chemicals (18 per cent), basic metal (12.4 per cent), rubber, plastic and petroleum products (11.8 per cent) and transport equipment (11 per cent) would be the growth engine for this year.

The projection is based on analysis of projected capacity and expected capacity utilisation of major industries.

Claiming that the current index of industrial production (IIP) released by the Ministry of Statistics grossly underestimates the industrial growth, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said, “The IIP numbers do not confirm to the trends in the alternate reliable data sources.”

As a proof of its claim, the Mumbai-headquartered institution said sales of 2,144 listed manufacturing firms increased by 22.6 per cent in the first quarter ended June 2008 — substantially higher than the IIP growth rate of 5.2 per cent for the quarter.
 

CORE HOPES Performance of six infrastructure industries July 2008 — growth rate in production
Sector	Jul-07

Jul-08

Apr-Jul 
07-08

Apr-Jul 
08-09

Crude oil0.9-3.0-0.3-0.9 Petroleum refinery products4.711.811.05.4 Coal1.15.50.87.6 Electricity7.54.58.12.6 Cement9.48.87.76.5 Finished steel (carbon)10.81.96.83.8 Overall 7.24.36.63.7 Base year: 1993-94

If the data collection problems of the IIP are not fixed, official industrial production number would be 8.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy’s projection of 9.1 per cent, it said.