Indian economy expected to expand at 7.4% in FY 19: Ficci survey

The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal, higher than the previous year, said a Ficci survey released on Tuesday. 

Rising oil prices however are putting pressure on the current account, while global uncertainties around trade and financial markets carry serious risks for the rupee, according to the economists who participated in the Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey.

Also, trade tensions between major economies is disturbing the global recovery, it said.

The survey forecasts an annual median GDP growth at 7.4 per cent for 2018-19, with a minimum and maximum range of 7.1 per cent and 7.5 per cent, respectively.

"The projection is in line with the estimates put out by the Reserve Bank earlier this month," it said.

The expansion in the GDP was 6.7 per cent (provisional) in 2017-18.

On the growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal, the survey said the expansion in the economic activity would be 7.1 per cent.
 

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is scheduled to release the first quarter GDP number on August 31.

On rupee, the industry chamber said the economists universally believe that the Indian currency will remain under strain.

"Majority of economists believed that the fair value of Indian Rupee vis--vis the US Dollar would be in the range of 65 to 66," the survey said.

The study further said the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3 per cent for 2018-19.
 

Although there has been some slippage in the monsoons during June and July, updated forecast for August and September indicate a pick-up in rainfall.

Further, industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively in 2018-19.

Ficci said the outlook of the economists on inflation seems benign. The Consumer Price Index or retail inflation has been forecast at 4.8 per cent for the year as whole.