Indicus price monitor

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The soybean crop, a kharif one, has benefited from a good monsoon this year, and the 2013-14's 1st Advance Estimates have pegged output at a record 15.7 million tonnes, 6.8% higher than last year. Prices had soared in 2012, with poor rain, low stocks and a 30% rise in minimum support price (MSP). There was a moderation in prices this year; the all-India wholesale price for a quintal of soya oil that peaked at Rs 8,138.4 last September averaged Rs 7,917.73 a quintal in October.

A big slide in prices is unlikely because the harvest in the first half of October has been hit by unseasonal rain, especially in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The Soybean Processors Association of India has revised its estimates downwards to 12.2 million tonnes, less than the ministry's estimates but higher than last year's crop. With the 2013-14 MSP at Rs 2,500 a quintal, 13.6% higher than last year, and pressures from rupee limiting cheap imports, domestic prices are not set to decline significantly.