Kharif output to be flat on poor rains in East

Experts expect better rabi yields, peg overall agriculture growth at 5% for FY14

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Kharif foodgrain production in FY14 will be almost static at 129.32 million tonnes, according to the first advance estimates released on Tuesday. This is just 0.87 per cent more than last year’s 128.20 million tonnes. The flat growth is due to low rains in Bihar, Jharkhand and Assam, which has affected paddy production, and also because of floods in other parts of the country.

This could impact agriculture growth in 2013-14, which is pegged at five per cent by the policy makers against 1.9 per cent in 2012-13.

About  50 per cent of India’s total annual foodgrain is produced during the kharif season, sowing for which starts around June and the crop is harvested around October. In the first quarter of the current financial year, agriculture and allied activities grew just 2.7 per cent, dragging the overall economic growth down to a four-year low of 4.4 per cent.

“An overall agriculture growth of five per cent is possible as rabi crops are still to come,” said D K Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL.

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has pegged farm and allied sector growth at 4.8 per cent in the current financial year against 1.9 per cent in 2012-13. Larger economic growth fell to a decade-low of five per cent in 2012-13.

Releasing the estimates, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said there is likely to be an upward revision of 5-10 per cent when final estimates come as the full impact of monsoon is yet to be factored in. Pawar said foodgrain production in 2013-14 will be the second highest ever.

The estimates released on Tuesday showed production of paddy, the main foodgrain produced during the kharif season, is expected to be around 92.32 million tonnes, marginally less than last year’s 92.76 million tonnes.

“The estimate for rice output is kept lower as deficient rains in Bihar, Jharkhand and North East have affected the kharif crops,” Agriculture Commissioner J S Sandhu said at a conference.

According to India Meteorological Department, till September 23, southwest monsoon over Bihar has been around 30 per cent below normal, while in Assam it has been 34 per cent below normal and in Jharkhand, the rains have been 24 per cent less than normal.

According to an agriculture expert, the drop in rice output is marginal. “We are hopeful that by the time final analysis comes, kharif foodgrain production in 2013-14 would be much more than this.”

However, apart from eastern India, above-average rain in the remaining parts of the country has pushed up production of other kharif crops, although pulses production was up marginally.

Data showed pulse production is estimated to be 6.01 million tonnes in the current kharif season, representing an increase of 1.69 per cent over last year’s 5.91 million tonnes. However, oilseeds output is estimated to be 23.96 million tonnes in FY14, almost 15 per cent more than last year.

Production of sugarcane in 2013-14 is expected to be 341.77 million tonnes, 0.82 per cent more than last year’s 338.96 million tonnes, while cotton production is estimated to be 35.30 million bales (1 bale=170 kg), up 3.8 per cent from last year’s 33.9 million bales.

Higher production of pulses and oilseeds should help the government control food inflation as imports will either remain stagnant or rise marginally. Food inflation, which rose to 6.10 per cent in August in terms of wholesale price index from 5.8 per cent in the previous month, was one of the main reasons that forced the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to increase the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points.

The record production of foodgrain in the past few years has given confidence to the policy makers to roll out the ambitious food security Bill.