Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav may recommend dissolution of the state assembly if he finds that the Janata Dal (JD) faction opposing him is able to split the Dal's legislative party in case Yadav goes ahead with his reported plan of forming a regional party, according to some BJP leaders.
They also feared that the volatile political situation in the state could explode, leading to caste and communal tension if Yadav decided to take to the streets.
The JD has support of 195 MLAs in a House of 324 and his detractors would need the support of at least 65 to engineer a split.
In their failure to pressure Yadav from resigning from chief ministership, senior Dal leaders might allow the JD's Bihar unit to split to throw an adamant Chief Minister out, a BJP office-bearer said.
They might assume that the Dal factions could unite under a new leader, he said. However, Yadav would not allow this and recommend dissolution in such a possibility.
Dal leaders have been putting pressure on Yadav to resign in view of the Central bureau of Investigation's (CBI) intention to seek permission for filing chargesheet against him.
The Bihar Chief Minister would use all his theatrics to turn the legal battle into a caste conflict that would result in a sharp polarisation. As people start gathering around him in support, he would turn arrogant and not listen to reason, the BJP leader said.
The Bihar Chief Minister knows well that polarisation on caste lines would stem revolt within his party and also silence the issue of his involvement in the fodder scam for some time.
He might decide that facing the electorate would be a better option than to bow down from the office and lose the political battle as well, the BJP leader said.
As the BJP and the Samata Party have decided to expose him and carry a mass awareness campaign throughout the state, the first target of Laloo's attack would be the supporters of these two parties, he said.
Already, the BJP and the Samata Party have jointly given a call for Bihar bandh on May 3. A final strategy on what to do if Yadav did not resign by then would be chalked out on that day itself, Samata party leader Nitish Kumar said.
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