Rains show no sign of retreating at all-India level: CRISIL Drip index

With only two weeks to go for the southwest monsoon season to end, rains as on September 11 were a 3 per cent above normal — or the Long Period Average — at the all-India level. As of the preceding week, cumulative rainfall for the season was 1 per cent above normal. 

And there is no sign of the monsoon retreating yet.

In the week ended September 11, the central India witnessed increased showers. 

Cumulative rainfall in the region entered the ‘excess’ category at 21 per cent above normal, from 14 per cent a week ago. In the south, too, rainfall was 10 per cent above normal.

However, in the northwest, rains were 9 per cent below normal, while in the northeast the deficiency was 20 per cent.

The skew was more glaring at the state level. Among major kharif-producing states, five — Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan — have received 24-32 per cent excess rainfall. At the other end, four states — Haryana, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar — have clocked 23-39 per cent deficiency.

Further, in some states, although the overall picture is healthy, sub-regions are seeing stress. For instance, in Tamil Nadu 38 per cent of the districts are seeing deficiency, compared with 30 per cent in Punjab. Similarly, although rains are most abundant in Gujarat and Rajasthan, 43 per cent of the districts in Karnataka have seen excess rains compared with 45 per cent in Gujarat and 58 per cent in Rajasthan.

Given the erratic nature of rainfall this year — rapid catch-up and excess in some states, continued deficiency in a few, and delayed catch-up in some others — some damage to crops is inevitable.

In a number of states, delayed onset and catch-up of rains has affected sowing. In some others, though, farmers have taken up re-sowing or delayed sowing to obviate some potential dent in production. 

That said, rainfall volume data alone does not tell the whole story. We need to also consider vulnerabilities that arise from inadequate irrigation for a comprehensive perspective on states and crops. 

CRISIL's Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) does just that. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse the impact of deficient rains. We compare scores not just with the previous year, but also with the last five years' average, to get a more holistic picture.

The latest DRIP scores show deeper stress in 3-4 states. The scores are the highest and also higher than trend in three of these — West Bengal, Bihar and Haryana — and higher on-year in Uttar Pradesh. This suggests crops there are likely to have suffered. In Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, some increase in deficit at the sub-regional level last week has raised their DRIP scores towards borderline.

Crop-wise, however, the scores provide some comfort. This is because a dent to sowing in some areas (for instance paddy in West Bengal and Bihar) has been compensated by higher sowing in others (such as Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu).

One of the limitations of the DRIP framework is that it does not factor in the adverse impact of excess rainfall. Similarly, it does not consider the impact of re-sowing of crops that farmers might engage in. And inter-crop scores are the highest for paddy.