StatsGuru: Taking stock of the impact of a deficient monsoon

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The adverse monsoon forecast from the Indian Meteorological Department has caused considerable concern, and has led to analyses from various organisations, including ICICI Securities and CRISIL. As Table 1 shows, the IMD forecasts a monsoon that will be deficient in a geographical pattern similar to 2014's under-strength monsoon.

However, as Table 2 shows, there is even more damage possible if, as in 2014, even the deficient rainfall is bunched together at the end - it can wither crops on the field if it is delayed, or even cause floods if it comes all at once. There is some comfort, however, that in spite of a poor monsoon in 2014, reservoir levels were not dangerously depleted, as Table 3 shows.

The mainstay of the Indian diet, cereals, might survive a poor monsoon, thanks to the fact that major cereal-producing states - shown in Table 4 - such as Punjab and Haryana, are largely irrigated. The problem comes in fruit and vegetables, shown in Table 5, and to some extent pulses, in Table 6. The less well irrigated states - like Maharashtra - bear a greater burden of output, and a deficient monsoon can bite.

As Table 7 shows, the states of interior India - Maharashtra, MP, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh - are among the worst irrigated in the country. But Northwest India's dependence on tubewells for irrigation is not sustainable, as Figure 8 shows. Northwest India -Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab - is withdrawing more groundwater than is being recharged.