Textiles ministry reduces cotton output estimates

The Ministry of Textiles scaled down cotton output estimates by five per cent after its apex body the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) met industry officials and traders in Mumbai on Saturday.

From its previous estimates of 32.9 million bales (of 170 kg each) of cotton production forecast in the first CAB meeting on January 6 this year, the ministry reduced the output estimates to 31.2 million bales. The total production in the cotton year 2009-10 was 29.5 million bales.

“We are scaling down the output forecast this cotton season due to a low arrivals in the market,” said Textile Commissioner A B Joshi.

Attributing the dramatic fall in output resuling into a decline in overall arrivals, Joshi said, “The Central Zone reported total otuput estimates at 20.1 million bales as against 21.3 million bales in the previous forecast. Due to vagaries in nature’s behaviour, total cotton output was not reported in Central Zone as estimated earlier, he added.

Against the total estimated output of 31.2 lakh bales, the country until Friday reported total arrivals of 22.74 million bales. Joshi, however, denied any hoarding of large traders in anticipation of higher prices.

Maharashtra registered the maximum fall in output this season at 8.2 million bales as against 9.2 million bales in the previous estimate.

Total area under cotton crop, in contrast, rose marginally this year at 11.16 million hectares as compared to 11.06 million hectares in the previous estimates. The total acreage was 10.31 million hectares in the previous season.

As a result of substantial reduction in output estimates, total carryover stocks for the next season is likely to decline to 2.75 million bales, way behind the mandatory guidlines of the Textile Ministry of 4 million bales.

Joshi forecast that the supply restriction may further escalate cotton prices which had declined Rs 55,000 a candy (1 candy = 356 kg) from Rs 62,000 a candy a fortnight ago.