There is pressure on forest officials to show that tiger numbers have not declined: MK Ranjitsinh

Interview with chairman of NGO Wildlife Trust of India (WTI)

India started its quadrennial tiger census on Wednesday, when forest guards, rangers, officials, volunteers and wildlife enthusiasts swarmed on 53 tiger reserves across the length and breadth of the country. The first three days of the census were devoted to estimating the number of tigers and other carnivores, while the remaining time will be spent on studying the predators' prey base and the plant life which they thrive on. MK Ranjitsinh, chairman of NGO Wildlife Trust of India (WTI), speaks to Rajat Ghai on the current census and his views on the future of the tiger in India

What areas will this year's census cover?

I am not in favour of the term census. A census is expected to throw up a definite, exact number. But in exercises like the one that is being held right now, the number can never be exact, which rather makes it an 'enumeration' or 'estimation'.

The exercise to estimate the number of tigers in the wild in India is held once every four years. The estimation is done in all the 53 tiger reserves in the country. These reserves are spread across an enormous area - from Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan to Arunachal Pradesh.

What methods are used to count tigers?

In my time, there was only one method to estimate the number of tigers - the pugmark tracking method. It involved scanning the roads and pathways inside and outside a reserve for tiger pugmarks. A tiger pug mark is like a human's fingerprint. It gives information about the tiger's age, sex, its medical health and other facets. Pugmark tracings and plaster casts from the field are collected and analysed. Newer methods have been developed with tremendous advances in technology today, making these surveys more accurate.

In 2002, the government and the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) decided on a scientific estimation protocol to estimate tiger numbers. In my opinion, camera-trapping is the best method, which was introduced in India in 2006. A camera-trap is a remotely activated camera that is equipped with a motion sensor or an infrared sensor.

What are the challenges that surveyors face in counting the tigers?

Sometimes, it is difficult to trace a particular individual tiger - which you know by pugmark or photograph. Such an individual may not appear on the particular day of the estimation when it is being searched for.

The second challenge for surveyors is about the numbers. The government, the media and even common people judge a tiger reserve and its officials by the number of tigers in it. Every time an estimation is conducted, there is immense pressure on the forest officials to show that the numbers have not declined. If the numbers are found to have dwindled, it leads to scathing criticism and can result in officers being transferred - because of which, there is an inclination to make the number higher than what it was last time. This fudging of numbers is a huge challenge in estimating the real population of tigers and other species.

More than 500 wildlife enthusiasts and conservation activists are taking part in the week-long survey. How are these tiger surveyors shortlisted?

This practice did not exist in my time, so it won't be right for me to comment on it. All I can say is that if forest officers select enthusiasts as volunteers during these estimations, it points towards an increased awareness among common people these days. Another advantage of this is that the presence of enthusiasts makes it very difficult for forest officials to fudge numbers.

How do you ensure that this is a foolproof method, with little margin for error?

It depends on the integrity of the people who collate the data.

How will this survey be different from the last one which was conducted four years ago?

With each passing estimation, data collation techniques become increasingly refined. Present techniques are a huge improvement over previous ones.

What are your expectations in terms of the number of tigers? Do you expect the number to have gone up?

There is no definite answer to that question. The number of tigers - increases or decreases in their population - varies from reserve to reserve. In certain areas, the numbers would be static; in others, they would go up.