Defeat dents BJP's Rajya Sabha hopes

But it is not just the BJP that needs to worry, even the JD(U)-RJD alliance will be tested next year

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) defeat in Bihar dents its hopes of improving its tally in the Rajya Sabha. But the ‘Mahagatbandhan’ victory could also present the first signs of tension in the alliance when five Janata Dal (United) Rajya Sabha members retire next year and their replacements will need to be picked.

The BJP had desperately needed to win Bihar if it wanted to improve its Rajya Sabha numbers, which stands currently at 48. The BJP, along with its allies, is woefully short of a majority in the Upper House and several reformist Bills are stuck due to their lack of numbers  in the Rajya Sabha.  

Here are the numbers for Rajya Sabha from Bihar:

Bihar sends 16 MPs in total to the Rajya Sabha. 

Five of these, all of whom are JD(U) MPs, complete their terms in July 2016. These are Ghulam Rasool Balyawi, RP Singh, KC Tyagi, Pawan Kumar Varma and Sharad Yadav.
 

At best, the BJP could hope to win one of these five seats. The other four will be shared between JD (U) and RJD. There will be several aspirants for these seats, including Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad’s wife and former Bihar Chief Minister Rabri Devi, their daughter Misa Bharti and Prasad’s right hand man and former Corporate Affairs Minister Prem Chand Gupta. Similarly, JD (U) will have its own set of candidates. RP Singh, given his proximity to Nitish Kumar, should get a second term, while Prashant Kishor, the chief strategist, might get a look in. This could scupper the chances of Tyagi and Verma in getting a second term.

Another six MPs from Bihar retire in 2018. Of these four are JD (U) and two BJP. Five more retire in 2020, three of which are JD (U) and two BJP. 

The seats bagged by BJP in Bihar, it couldn't match the 91 seats it won in 2010, would mean that the party cannot even hope to retain its current four MPs in the Rajya Sabha from Bihar, let alone increase its tally.