Five-state Assembly polls seen as bellwether for 2019 Lok Sabha elections

In 2013, BJP's massive wins in MP and Rajasthan had given an inkling of the 'Modi wave' of 2014 LS polls

Polling for much-anticipated elections to five state legislatures is scheduled to kick-start on Monday, with the electorate in 18 of Chhattisgarh’s 90 seats scheduled to vote.

The counting of votes to elect new governments in Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Telangana, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh (MP) is scheduled for 

December 11. The results of these five Assembly polls would be a barometer of the public mood in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha (LS) polls, but also crucially influence the complexion of politics until then.

In 2013, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) massive wins in MP and Rajasthan had given an inkling of the ‘Modi wave’ of the 2014 LS polls. With Narendra Modi actively campaigning in these states, the BJP had then won 165 of 230 seats in MP and 163 of Rajasthan’s 200 seats.

In the LS polls five months later, the BJP won all 25 of Rajasthan’s LS seats, 27 of MP’s 29, and 10 of Chhattisgarh’s 11 LS seats — the three states contributing significantly to the party’s 282 seats, the first instance of a majority government in 30 years. A win in these three north Indian states, where the BJP is facing anti-incumbency, is crucial for the 2019 LS campaign of the BJP leadership of Prime Minister (PM) Modi and party chief Amit Shah.

The Congress, under its President Rahul Gandhi, has launched an aggressive campaign in the three north Indian states to highlight alleged corruption, joblessness, and farm distress under the BJP’s rule at the Centre and in states.

The elections would be held under the shadow of the Sangh Parivar upping the ante on the Ram temple issue, with the Vishva Hindu Parishad planning to hold public rallies in Nagpur, Ayodhya, and Bengaluru on November 25, for its early construction. Elections in MP are on November 28, and in Rajasthan and Telangana on December 7, a day after the anniversary of the razing of the Babri Masjid on December 6, 1992.

Incidentally, the Supreme Court Bench of Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi would be hearing the case related to the imbroglio in the Central Bureau of Investigation as polling gets under way in Chhattisgarh.

Opinion polls, which have been prohibited by the Election Commission from Monday to the last day of polling on December 7, have predicted an edge for the Congress in Rajasthan and for the BJP in Chhattisgarh because of a three-cornered fight, while forecasting a contest too close to call in MP.

In Telangana, the ruling Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao government of Telangana Rashtra Samithi had advanced the elections by six months in the hope of a cakewalk, but is now facing a tougher challenge than it had expected from the ‘mahakutami’, or united Opposition, of the Congress, Telugu Desam Party, Telangana Jana Samithi, and Communist Party of India (CPI).

While Modi is scheduled to be in his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi on Monday to announce several development projects, the BJP chief has decided to spend the next two days in Chhattisgarh to better monitor his party’s election campaign. Shah will address three rallies on Monday and four on Tuesday in Chhattisgarh. The PM is scheduled to leave for Singapore to attend the East Asia Summit mid-week and visit the Maldivian capital on November 17.

However, the portents for the polling on Monday, the first of two phases in Chhattisgarh, were bad. Suspected Maoists triggered at least seven explosions on the eve of the first phase of polling killing a Border Security Force sub-inspector in Kanker district. Police said a Maoist was gunned down in an encounter in the state’s Bijapur district.

Nearly 100,000 security personnel have been deployed in the eight districts going to polls on Monday, all of which are under the influence of Left Wing extremists. Maoists have called for a boycott of the elections.

The second phase of polling in Chhattisgarh, in which remainder of the 72 seats will poll, is scheduled for November 20. Maoist outfits have carried out over half-a-dozen attacks in the last 15 days, three of them major ones which left 13 people dead, including a cameraman of national broadcaster Doordarshan who was covering the election campaign.

On the eve of the elections, Congress spokesperson Ajay Maken attacked the Raman Singh government in Chhattisgarh of running a dynastic government that has only helped his family get richer. The BJP launched a campaign on social media, ‘mera PM mera abhiman’, or ‘my PM my pride’, to highlight the leadership provided by Modi.

Mizoram has a Congress government since 2008, while Rajasthan has always thrown out the incumbent government since 1993. Chhattisgarh and MP have BJP governments for the past 15 years since 2003. In 2013, the difference of vote share between the BJP and Congress was a mere 0.7 per cent. However, Ajit Jogi-led Janta Congress Chhattisgarh, Bahujan Samaj Party, and CPI could dent Congress party’s hopes to unseat the Raman Singh government.