Kerala assembly elections: Will BJP make inroads this time?

Around 26.1 million voters in Kerala are eligible to go to the polling booths on Monday to elect 140 members to the state’s legislative assembly.

There are a record 1,203 candidates, 109 being women. Poll stations number 21,498, with 35,946 electronic voting machines.

The Election Commission has identified around 1,300 poll booths as ‘critical’ for their past record in political violence, mostly in Kannur district. The 2011 assembly elections had a voter turnout of 75.1 per cent, up from 72.2 per cent in the 2006 elections.

The largest number of candidates are in Poonjar constituency, Kottayam district, where there are 17 candidates. The least are in Payyannur, Kasaragod and Nilambur in Malappuram district, and at Kongad and Tarur constituencies in Palakkad district, with four candidates each.

The outcome will be known on Thursday. The Congress party is contesting in 87 seats; its Indian Union Muslim League ally in 23. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) is contesting in 85; Left ally CPI is doing so in 25. The BJP has fielded 98 candidates. There are 782 independents.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front have alternated in power at every election for decades. This time, the BJP has an alliance with 11 regional parties, including the recently formed Bharath Dharma Jana Sena, led by Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) leader Vellapally Natesan.

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister and BJP leader, has visited several times for campaigning, also igniting some controversy for his attacks. With the incumbent UDF government's tenure ending, the LDF which has been conducting agitations on various issues and policies of the government is looking at winning the majority of seats, with the traditional anti-incumbency sentiment. The UDF has been campaigning on the welfare measures it has taken over the past five years and comparing itself favourably to the previous LDF government. The BJP has strongly attacked both.

UDF leaders including Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala are contesting. So are V S Achuthanandan, former CM from the Left and former CPIM(M) state chief, Pinarayi Vijayan; both are considered strong contenders to be CM if the LDF wins. Some film stars are in the fray, as is ex-cricketer S Sreesanth.

Issues include the issue of liquor prohibition and bar licences and various graft allegations on both sides. Plus the rival cntestations on the two Fronts’ record of governance.