Modi-Yogi trump 'mahagathbandhan' in UP as Rahul trails Smriti by 25,000

BJP had sealed wins in 28 parliamentary seats, and was leading in 34 others across UP at the time of filing this report

The duo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath has resolutely trumped the formidable ‘mahagathbandhan’ of regional heavyweights Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Even as the counting of votes was still on at the time of filing this report, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had already won 28 parliamentary seats, while leading in 34 other constituencies across UP, which elects the maximum 80 Lok Sabha members.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi was staring at defeat in traditional turf of Amethi and was trailing Smriti Irani of BJP by nearly 25,000 votes. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, he had defeated Irani by a little more than 100,000 votes, which was nonetheless a massive trickle down from his earlier victory margins of more than 200,000 votes.

Those, who had already won in the BJP camp included union home minister Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), who defeated SP candidate Poonam Sinha, the wife of BJP turncoat Shatrughan Sinha, who is himself a Congress candidate from Patna Sahib. Union minister General (Ret) VK Singh had won from Ghaziabad.

In these polls, BJP had contested 78 seats, it had left two seats of Mirzapur and Robertsganj for its junior ally Apna Dal (S), whose candidate Anupriya Patel and Pakaudi Lal Kol had won from their respective seats.

Meanwhile, the ‘mahagathbandhan’ had either won or was leading in 17 seats. Under the grand alliance, SP and BSP had contested 37 and 38 seats respectively, while leaving 2 and 3 seats for Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Congress respectively. Among the grand alliance constituents, BSP was leading in more seats than SP at 10 and 7 respectively.

The critical takeaway from the Lok Sabha results is an indication of a tactical shift in the voting pattern in UP, away from caste and community considerations. The ‘mahagathbandhan’ was aimed at consolidating the backward, Muslim and Dalit votes to create a winning axis against the BJP, which was harping on Modi wave, nationalism and ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’ mantra. This appears to have delivered the goods for the saffron outfit.

Congress, which had fielded candidates in nearly 70 seats in UP, was leading only in one constituency at Rae Bareli, where United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi is in fray. Congress’ game plan of galvanising cadres by deploying Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and former union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia to manage the Lok Sabha elections in the state simply backfired and failed to create any chemistry on the ground. The comatose party structure in the state did the rest.

Recently, exit polls had also predicted a sweep by the BJP although a couple of pollsters had forecast the ‘mahagathanbhan’ to vanquish the saffron outfit in UP, which had elected 73 members for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. BJP ally Apna Dal (S) had won 2 seats, while BJP had cornered the remaining 71 seats.

Meanwhile, these polls are heading towards springing several surprises both for Congress and the grand alliance partners. For example, Akshay Yadav, the son of SP general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav, was trailing in Badaun against BJP candidate Sanghmitra Maurya, the daughter of UP minister and BSP turncoat Swami Prasad Maurya.

Similarly, UP Congress president Raj Babbar was trailing from Fatehpur Sikri constituency.

Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple was only leading with a slender margin of 2,400 votes in Kannuaj over BJP’s Subrat Pathak. She had won the seat last year by nearly 18,000 votes.

However, Akhilesh was leading in Azamgarh by nearly a lakh votes at the time of filing of this report. SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav was also leading in Mainpuri seat.

Bhojpuri cinema star Ravi Kishan was leading comfortably in Gorakhpur, the turf of chief minister Adityanath.

The virtual rout of the ‘mahagathbandhan’ in UP is likely to spur a rethinking or at least a re-strategising by its principal constituents SP and BSP, even though the two parties had reiterated their commitment towards working together for the coming 2022 UP elections.