RBI commissions surveys to gauge growth

The Reserve Bank will conduct a new round of surveys to gauge the mood of industry on growth prospects, amid expectations that the Indian economy is poised to clock nine per cent expansion in 2010-11.

RBI will carry out two surveys — on industrial outlook and on capacity utilisation by the manufacturing sector. It has mandated two institutions, the Delhi-based Centre for Research Planning and Action (CRPA) and the Mumbai-based Centre for Monitoring India Economy (CMIE), for the task.

In its mid-term economic review released in December 2010, the government revised upwards its growth forecast for the economy in this financial year to 8.75 per cent, plus or minus 0.35 per cent, as against the earlier estimate of 8.5 per cent. The economy has grown by 8.9 per cent during the first half of 2010-11, above the government’s expectations.

While CRPA will conduct the ‘Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey for January-March 2011’, CMIE will be responsible for the ‘Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey’(Obicus) which will have October–December 2010 as the reference period.

Launched in 1998, the IOS intends to gain insight into the perception of public and private limited companies engaged in manufacturing about their own performance and prospects. It will cover non-financial private and public limited companies of comparative size and take into account parameters like overall business and financial situations, demand indicators, price and employment expectations and profit margins.

Obicus will cover the manufacturing sector and is intended to gauge capacity utilisation, helping RBI to formulate its monetary policy. “The survey seeks... Quantitative information on order books, inventories and capacity utilisation, such as, pending order books, backlog order books, total inventories, finished goods inventories, work in progress inventories, installed capacity,” the apex bank said.