RBI hikes repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25%, cuts FY23 GDP forecast to 6.8%

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das emphasises concerns on core inflation, says overall price momentum high

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India announced a 35-basis-point increase in the repo rate to 6.25 per cent. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise the rate to bring elevated inflation back towards its target of 4 per cent, governor Shaktikanta Das said.

The six-member MPC, which held its bi-monthly policy meeting from December 5 to 7, remained focused on withdrawing accommodation.

The MPC’s rate action was not unanimous, with 5 out of 6 members voting for the rate hike. The decision on the stance was also not unanimous, with 4 out of six members voting for the retention of the stance.

The Standing Deposit Facility rate – which represents the floor of the interest rate corridor, is now 35 bps higher at 6 per cent. The Marginal Standing Facility rate, which is the upper band of the interest rate corridor, has also been increased by 35 bps to 6.50 per cent.

The rate hike was in line with market expectations – A Business Standard poll of 10 respondents had predicted a rate hike of 35 basis points. At its current level, the repo rate is at its highest since February 2019. So far, in 2022, the MPC has raised the repo rate by 225 basis points.

The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond was last at 7.29 per cent, four basis points higher previous close. Bond prices and yields move inversely. Traders said that the initial weakness in bonds was owing to the repeated concern expressed by Das about persistent and sticky core inflation.

The rupee was last at 82.62 per US dollar, flat versus the previous close.

Das said that the MPC had retained its inflation forecast for the current financial year at 6.7 per cent. The MPC has, however, made mild upward revisions to the inflation forecasts for the current quarter and the next quarter. CPI inflation is seen at 6.6 per cent in October-December versus the 6.5 per cent projected earlier. In January-March, headline retail inflation is seen at 5.9 per cent versus 5.8 per cent estimated earlier.

For the first quarter of the next financial year, the MPC has retained its inflation forecast at 5 per cent while the price gauge is seen at 5.4 per cent in the second quarter of the next financial year, Das said.

While saying that Consumer Price Index-based inflation is likely to moderate going ahead, Das stressed on persistent price pressures and the stickiness of core inflation, which strips away the volatile components of food and fuel.

“The medium-term inflation target is exposed to heightened uncertainties…further calibrated monetary policy action is warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored, break the core inflation persistence and contain second-round effects,” Das said.

Repeatedly emphasising the importance of bringing down elevated core inflation, Das said the metric was the “main risk” at the moment. He said that while food inflation is likely to moderate going ahead, pressure points included prices of cereals, milk and spices.

“Overall CPI price momentum remains high,” he said.

Consumer Price Index-based inflation has been elevated for several months due to supply-side disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and a surge in global commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.

CPI inflation has been above the upper band of the MPC’s tolerance range of 2-6 per cent for ten consecutive months. The price gauge, which was at 6.77 per cent in October, has remained above 4 per cent for 37 straight months. Core inflation was around 6 per cent.

Growth forecast cut

The RBI governor also announced a mild reduction in the GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent earlier. He said that while the growth forecast had been reduced, India would still be among the fastest-growing major economies.

GDP growth in October-December is now seen at 4.4 per cent versus 4.6 per cent earlier, while the growth for January-March is seen at 4.2 per cent versus 4.6 per cent earlier, with risks broadly balanced, Das said.

In the first quarter of the next financial year, GDP growth is seen at 7.1 per cent versus 7.2 per cent projected by the MPC earlier. GDP growth in the second quarter of the next fiscal year is seen at 5.9 per cent.

Das said that high-frequency indicators in the current quarter showed economic activity gaining strength. He flagged strength in discretionary spending, passenger vehicle sales and recovery in rural demand – as evidenced by strong tractor and two-wheeler sales.