Rupee Lost Just 1% Since April

The Indian rupee has lost comparatively little compared to its peers in the Asian region, since April 2001.

While the slackening global trade and the US slowdown has hit some Asian currencies real hard, the rupee has lost just 1 per cent against the dollar since the beginning of April 2001.

The last one month has seen the rupee remain in a range of 47.07 to 47.16 and has found support at 47.10 to the dollar.

Nationalised banks have emerged as major sellers at this level, leading to a widespread belief that they are doing the central bank's bidding.

The collapse of the information, communication and entertainment sectors in major global markets has impacted export trade emanating from the Asian region.

Most of these markets are heavily dependent on exports to the US. In Hong Kong, for instance, exports are 133 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), of which 32 per cent alone goes to the US.

Similarly, Malaysia's exports to GDP is 122 per cent and 27 per cent of these exports go to the US.

India, on the other hand, is relatively insular as its exports are only 11 per cent of the GDP and only 2 per cent of it is to the US.

"It is difficult for the slowdown in the US economy to affect the Indian scenario," said professor Norbert Walter, chief economist of the Deutsche Bank Group, on a recent trip to India.

China also has exports of 20 per cent of its total GDP of which only 5 per cent goes to the USA.

The Philippine peso has depreciated by 8.09 per cent since April while the Thai baht has fallen by 0.75 per cent.

But the Japanese yen has shown a recovery of 2.4 per cent and the Singapore dollar has also risen by over 2 per cent against the dollar.

The Indonesian rupaiah has appreciated by 10 per cent and the South Korean won, despite having depreciated greatly in the last one year on account of political instability, has still seen some appreciation of a little over 3 per cent.

"The emerging markets are in a better position now than they were in 1997 since they have better reserves in order to meet their obligations. There also are better and flexible exchange rate regimes,