Rupee may gain this week amid monetary policy expectations

The rupee is likely to gain marginally and trade in the 53-54 range this week, as markets await triggers from the upcoming RBI monetary policy review, according to forex experts.

Experts said that Indian currency could further strengthen against the US dollar if the apex bank eases its monetary stance especially with reduction in Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR).

Kotak Mahindra Bank's Head of Treasury Mohan Shenoy said the local currency is unlikely to witness any "violent movement" this week and would hover in a tight range of 53.50-54.25.

However, he noted the currency might see some upward bias if the Centre comes out with some measures post the Cabinet reshuffle and stock markets are boosted by an up to 0.50% cut in CRR.

Though inflation remains above the comfort level, there are expectations of RBI to cut CRR by around 25 to 50 basis points at the quarterly monetary policy review on Tuesday.

A sustained upward bias in euro's movement against the dollar in recent days could also help the rupee, experts opined.

"The rupee might face some pressure in the beginning of the week due to month-end dollar demand for oil payments," Dhanlaxmi Bank Executive Vice-President (Treasury) Srinivasa Raghavan told PTI over the phone from Mumbai.

"However, if the Reserve Bank goes for a 25 bps (0.25%) cut in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its monetary policy, it will uplift the equity market sentiments, which in turn will boost the rupee," he said.

Geojit Comtrade Chief Currency Strategist Hemant Doshi said, the rupee would move in the range of 53.20-54.

Echoing similar sentiment, Ashtosh Raina, chief dealer at HDFC Bank said the rupee is likely to move in the broad range of 53-54. "If RBI matches the market expectation of a 25-50 bps cut, then the stock markets can rally, which in turn can boost the rupee sentiment," he noted.

According to Doshi, Asian currencies are doing well and that would have a trickle-down effect on the Indian currency as well.

Month-end dollar demand would subside in the first few of next week and unlikely to have much impact on the rupee.