Odds begin to tilt in favour of Donald Trump in race to White House

Biden may lead the polls but lose the Electoral College, say analysts

Anti-racist movements across the country, along with surging Covid-19 cases, may have put the US President Donald Trump in a tight spot, however, these incidents haven’t deterred the betting odds to incline towards the billionaire president.

Trump has overtaken Democratic rival Joe Biden to stand as the favourite to win the 2020 US Presidential election, the UK exchange Betfair said on Wednesday.

Betfair Exchange said four bets of over £10,000 ($13,362) were placed on the platform overnight, of which three were on Trump, while the biggest stake of the campaign so far, a £50,000 bet, was placed on the Republican nominee over the weekend. These bets in part aided Trump to take the lead, after being neck-and-neck with Biden earlier this week, completing a stunning recovery in the betting markets.

Another online betting site, Odds Shark, said last week that Trump had narrowed the gap with Biden following a strong positive showing at the Republican National Convention, media reports said.

“After falling as low as +145 to retain his seat in the Oval Office, Trump now sits at +105 (Bet $100 to win $105), which is the best line he has seen since June 22,” it said.

Analysts say that bettors have started to lose confidence in Biden’s Presidential Campaign. Meanwhile, another poll — the new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll— found that Biden leads Trump in the race for the White House by 50 per cent-43 per cent. It said on Wednesday that the seven-point advantage has narrowed from the 12-point edge Trump held in June. However, Democratic supporters should not be carried away by these polls as 2020 presidential polls can be similar to that of 2016.

In a USA Today/Suffolk Poll taken in August 2016, the then Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton led Trump by seven points. (That ballot test included third-party candidates; Biden now leads Trump by five points in a ballot that includes third-party options.)  In that election, Clinton won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College to Trump.

“I'd say Biden is no better off at this point,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Political Research Center. Analysts predict like 2016, Biden may win the polls but could lose the Electoral College.