Cotton exports may fall by 40%

Total export for 2014-15 is estimated at 9 million bales which is significantly lower than last year

Cotton export has started to pick up, with the new season (October to September) having begun, but is unlikely to meet the estimates put forward by the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB).

The Board, under the Union textile commissioner, has estimated total export in 2014-15 at nine million bales (a bale is 170 kg), about 23 per cent lower from the previous year’s export of 11.7 mn bales. Analysts believe the total might be no more than 7-7.5 mn.

Prerana Desai, head of research with Edelweiss  Commodities, said: “We see exports almost 20 per cent lower than what has been estimated by CAB. China, a big buyer is facing a slowdown and the government there is pushing for use of higher local material.” Two-thirds of our cotton export go to China.

Export had been at a near-standstill for some time. Four months earlier, India’s cotton prices were 22 cents a pound higher than the global level. This has since dropped and our prices are about six cents a pound higher.

“Demand from China is going to be lower this year but India will see good demand from Thailand, Bangladesh and Pakistan,” said M B Lal, a Mumbai-based exporter.

Export can be higher than 7-7.5 mn bales if Indian prices fall further or global prices rebound but, said Desai, "all depends on how the Chinese economy progresses. If it remains slow, cotton demand will not increase”.

"This year, cotton export to China is expected to come down by another 35-40 per cent,” said Rahul Kotecha, a Coimbatore-based trader.  

Vietnam has started spinning of cotton and is present in garment manufacturing, thus importing more from India. Thailand has also started to import cotton from India, having entered cotton spinning. Bangladesh had imported 1.4-1.5 mn bales last year.  

In 2013-14, cotton export rose to 11.7 mn bales, compared to 10.1 mn in cotton year 2012-13, estimated CAB. Last year, China had imported 6.2 mn bales till July.

Indonesia, Pakistan and east Asian countries are expected to import a lot more this year.