MCX Gold, Silver: Upside seems capped; likely trading range for the week

The upside for MCX Gold June futures seem capped around Rs 51,500-odd level; while MCX Silver futures are likely to face strong resistance in the Rs 64,200 - 64,800 range.

Gold

Bias: Slightly Negative

Last close: Rs 50,829

Resistance: Rs 51,500

Downside Potential: Rs 48,950

The MCX Gold June futures have pulled back after testing support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts. The commodity is currently testing resistance around its 20-DMA placed at Rs 50,800-odd level, above the Gold prices may look to extend gains. However, the upside seems capped around its 50-DMA placed at Rs 51,500-odd level.

The overall bias seems slightly negative, hence one can expect strong resistance for Gold futures around the 50-DMA. The broader trend indicates that Gold prices are likely to drop towards the 200-DMA placed at Rs 48,950-odd level.

According to the key momentum oscillators, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) seems to be recovering from oversold zone, and same is the case with the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily charts. Hence, some upside in the near term can be expected. 

According to weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Gold June futures this week may move in a broad range of Rs 50,050 to Rs 51,625. MCX Gold futures may seek support around Rs 50,550 - 50,335 - 50,185; whereas on the upside, Gold prices are likely to face resistance around Rs 51,115 - 51,320 - 51,475.

Meanwhile, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Gold June futures on Monday are likely to seek support around Rs 50,680 - 50,635 - Rs 50,590; on the upside the commodity may face resistance around Rs 50,975 - 51,025 - 51,070.

Similarly, Gold Mini June futures are likely to move in a broad range of Rs 50,085 to Rs 51,600 this week. Gold Mini futures may look to seek support around Rs 50,570 - 50,375 -50,230, whereas the commodity may face resistance around Rs 51,110 - 51,310 - 51,455.

On Monday, MCX Gold Mini June futures may look for support around Rs 50,700 - 50,650 - 50,610; whereas the commodity may face resistance around Rs 50,985 - 51,1030 - 51,070.

Silver

Bias: Negative

Last Close: Rs 61,407

Resistance: Rs 63,075

Support: 59,740

Downside Potential: Rs 52,500

In sync with Gold futures, the MCX Silver July futures also pulled back from lower levels and are currently testing resistance around the 20-DMA placed at Rs 61,870-odd level. The short-term bias for Silver continues to remain negative as the 20-DMA is fairly below the other key moving averages - 50-DMA (Rs 65,410), 100-DMA (Rs 64,60) and 200-DMA (Rs 63,740)|.

In case, Silver futures are able to conquer the 20-DMA resistance, one can expect Silver prices to move near the above mentioned key moving averages. 

On the positive from, among the key momentum oscillators the MACD has turned marginally positive, but still hovers below the zero line. The 14-day RSI is in neutral mode, while ADX indices indicates lack of strength in the current trend.

The weekly chart also indicates convergence of multiple resistance around Rs 64,200 to Rs 64,800; thus hinting that the upside for Silver futures seem limited in the current scenario.

The broader trend indicates that break and sustained trade below Rs 58,300-odd level can trigger a slide towards Rs 52,500.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver July futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 59,740 to Rs 63,075; with support expected around Rs 60,815 - 60,375 - 60,060. On the upside, Silver futures may face resistance around Rs 62,000 - 62,440 - 62,750.

The daily Fibonacci charts, indicates key support levels for Silver futures on Monday at Rs 61,080 - 60,980 - 60,880; whereas resistance can be expected around Rs 61,730 - 61,835 - 61,935.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini June futures may seek support around Rs 61,415 - 61,325 - 61,230; while silver prices may face resistance around Rs 62,020 - 62,115 - 61,205 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro June futures could seek support around Rs 61,425 - 61,335 -61,240 and might face resistance around Rs 62,030 - 62,125 - 62,215 today.