India set to surpass China as world's top cotton producer

The harvest is estimated at 39.63 million bales or 6.74 mn tonnes in the season starting October 1

India could topple China as the world's largest cotton grower next year as farmers plant the the biggest area ever, boosting production to near-record levels, according to the Cotton Association of India.

The harvest is estimated at 39.63 million bales of 170 kg each, or 6.74 million tonnes (mt), in the season starting October 1, the association said in its first prediction for 2014-2015. That's more than the 6.04 mt estimated for India by the International Cotton Advisory Committee and the 6.22 mt of Chinese output, said Dhiren Sheth, president of the Mumbai-based association.

Cotton futures fell 24 per cent this year as expanding US and Chinese reserves increased global stockpiles to a record and rising supplies from India might further pressure prices. India's crop may surpass initial estimates after a revival in the monsoon rains improved crop conditions, Sheth said. Chinese output might fall 24 per cent in 2015 as the government ends direct purchases from farmers, according Cncotton.com.

"Chinese production is seen lower as they are prioritising food crops," Sheth said by phone from Mumbai. India's crop will be "substantially higher" than estimates if the weather remains favourable, he said, referring to the 39.63 million bale estimate. The area will climb to a record, Sheth said.

Planting of cotton to soybeans and rice was delayed in June on 43 per cent deficit in monsoon rain, which accounts for 70 per cent of annual precipitation. The shortage narrowed to 18 per cent on Tuesday, accelerating planting, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Higher planting
The area under cotton increased 5.4 per cent to 11.7 million hectares (28.9 million acres) as of last Tuesday, from the same time last year, according to the agriculture ministry. Acreage was a record 12.18 million hectares in 2011-2012, according to data from the Textiles Commissioner.

"Export demand for the next season crop is not very substantial and not many contracts have been signed as China is going slow on purchases," Sheth said. "Local consumption continues to grow." Chinese output could drop to 5 mt in 2015 from an estimated 6.6 mt this year, according to Xi Jin, a manager at Cncotton.com, a researcher owned by China National Cotton Reserves Corp.

Futures rose 0.2 per cent to 64.30 cents a pound on ICE Futures US on Wednesday. They are 34 per cent below a two-year high of 97.35 cents reached on March 26. The contract for October delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd increased 0.3 per cent to Rs 18,340 ($302) a bale. The Cotton Advisory Committee increased its estimate of global inventories at the end of the season started on August 1 to 21.69 mt from 21.43 mt predicted last month.