Maize futures are going through a bearish phase following the rabi crop from Bihar and Andhra Pradesh hitting the market. In the spot market, however, the prices are stable and moving in a range of Rs 715 to Rs 725 a quintal. | |
| The contract for May delivery fell by about 6 per cent to Rs 741 a quintal today from Rs 790 a quintal a fortnight ago. According to commodity analysts, the futures prices may go down further. "We see Rs 715 as the support price and it should not plummet further down," they said. |
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| Experts said the decline in the May contract was typical as arrivals numbed the market during the period. "If we look at the June and the July contracts, prices are still firm," they added. The June contract is hovering around Rs 773 a quintal, whereas the July contract is above Rs 800 a quintal on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). |
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| Amit Sachdev, representative of the Gurgaon-based US Grains Council, said, "This bearish phase is short-lived. |
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| The market will go up as the coming months are going to be a tough period." The country expects around 2.3 million tonnes of the rabi maize. Despite this, however, there will be an overall shortage of 2 million tonnes. The rabi crop arrival will continue till mid-May. |
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| "The supply from Bihar is drying up. At the same time, there are quality concerns over the crop from the state," said a research analyst at Kotak Commodities. |
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| Bihar's crop that reached Delhi is reported to have higher moisture content. According to global standards, moisture content should be 14 per cent, but the crop from Bihar has a moisture level of 25 per cent. |
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| According to analysts, the bearish phase is set to continue through the next fortnight. But after that the "market will firm up". |
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| Nizamabad, a major delivery centre, witnessed arrivals of around 5,000 bags (each of 100 kg) of maize on Tuesday. Sources in the market said the arrival would not go up now even as the demand in the physical market was picking up. |
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| On Tuesday, the spot rate was around Rs 720 a quintal in mandis. |
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| Meanwhile, despite the rupee appreciation, maize imports have not proved viable so far. Contrary to reports suggesting a global scarcity of maize and a significant chunk going for ethanol production, the US may have enough to export. |
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| "India can import from Argentina, Brazil and the US. In the US alone, for 2007-08, there is an output estimate of 343 million tonnes. Apart from meeting the entire domestic need, the US will be left with enough maize that can be exported," said Sachdev. |
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