Nifty could climb to 5,100

After an early setback and getting support near 4,900 for the third consecutive day, the Nifty September futures closed near the day's high at 5,030, on account of short-covering from the other time frame traders. The bulls were third time lucky in keeping the Nifty above the 5,000 mark after failing to do so in the past two days. The pullback, which closed on a strong support in the value area, was well supported by Infosys, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.

Strong global cues proved game-changer for the domestic market. The volume-based pullback is expected to see a fresh invasion into 5,100. The price-based upside would take the futures around 5,070 on Thursday and the volume-based short-covering would take it to 5,100, the market picture chart (MKTP) suggests. The weakness in the global markets would put the bulls on the back foot, only to see the Nifty losing the 4,900 support. The price-based selling can take it around 4,837.

The trade summary matrix showed a change of guard but showed buy-side trades from the top traders. The floor traders were cautious in trading in the futures below 4,930 as the volume dropped to 17 per cent from a daily average of over 20 per cent in the first two time price opportunity periods of 30 minutes each. The initial balance range, 4,908-4,950, showed buy-side trade, indicating short-covering.

So, it is likely that the Nifty may not slip below 4,950. Nevertheless, the futures closed at 5,030, with 28 per cent volume above the upper band of value area (5,000), hinting a positive opening on Thursday.

The top contributor showed significant buying in the value area from the other time frame traders. HDFC Bank added 208,125 shares in the open interest (OI) and is poised to move around 490. ICICI Bank added 223,000 shares in the OI and may see a volume-based upside around 880. Infosys witnessed a fresh long build-up of 124,750 and is expected to go up around 2,412. Reliance Industries may go up around 841, the MKTP chart suggested. The futures closed at a premium to the spot and shed 2.70 million shares in the OI during the post-trading settlement period, indicating short-covering from the bears.