Sensex firms may post single-digit growth in June qtr

Against the backdrop of a perceptible slowdown in macro-environment, India Inc faces another tough quarter as Sensex companies are expected to post single-digit profit growth in the June quarter of current fiscal.

The earnings season would kicks off later this week with IT bellwether Infosys announcing its results for the first quarter of 2012-13 on July 12.

Drawdown in revenue trajectory also continues with top line growth moderating by 14% as margins remain under pressure.

Analysts expect the earnings weakness, seen in the March 2012 quarter, to persist due to high inflation and slowing economic growth.

According to a report by brokerage firm Angel Broking, earnings growth for the 30-blue-chip companies is expected at 9.4% during the June quarter. However, the brokerage firm had projected 10.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) earning growth of Sensex companies (excluding SBI and oil and gas companies) during the fourth quarter.

"Normalised earnings growth for the Sensex is expected at 9.4% and that for our coverage companies is expected at 10.7% (this is excluding the oil and gas sector, SBI and Tata Motors to eliminate distortions)," the report said.

Revenue growth of Sensex companies is expected to grow by 13.8% y-o-y in the first quarter of fiscal 2012-13 as against growth of 19.8% y-o-y achieved in fourth quarter of 2011-12.

"High inflation and slowing GDP growth are expected to continue hampering the earnings growth for Sensex companies," the brokerage firm noted.

"Margin pressures are expected to continue in 1Q FY13, with Sensex companies expected to witness a decline in operating and net profit margins by 88 basis point and 17 basis point y-o-y, respectively, on account of generalised inflation, overall slowdown and unfavourable financial leverage," it added.

Another brokerage firm Edelweiss expects IT, pharma, auto and utilities to post 'healthy' top line growth but said growth in metals, construction and real estate firms could be "relatively lower".

During the quarter, rupee has depreciated by 8% against the US dollar, which would aid earnings growth of IT companies.

Emkay Global Financial Services said, profit after tax (PAT)of mid cap and small cap companies are expected to contract by 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively.

However, sales for mid cap and small cap firms is projected to grow at 20.2% and 15.5%, respectively, during the current quarter.