Silver import declines 50% as traders offload stock

Silver has been an high beta commodity with prices rising and falling fast in comparison to gold

Imports of silver have fallen significantly this year, after about 20,000 tonnes of inflow over the past three years.

From January to July, 2,111 tonnes were imported, against 4,362 tonnes in the same period last year, the lowest after 2012. Demand was low and the big imports by traders in past years was coming into the market. That also resulted in prices quoting at a discount in July, though the level has shrunk.

Chirag Thakkar, director, Amrapali Group, says: “Prices went up sharply this year and every importer has been struggling to clear their stock.” Demand is still to pick up, he said, as the current price levels are still high.

Sudheesh Nambiath, a senior analyst at GFMS Thomson Reuters, says there’s a supply overhang due to unsold inventories across the value chain and high levels of stocking. He believes the trend will continue. “We expect full-year import to be close to 3,500 tonnes (lowest after 2012), a drop of 44 per cent on 2015 levels. We would need to see the price back below $18 an ounce for demand to be unleashed.”

By GFMS data, India imported 87,000 tonnes in the past three decades and the average price in that period was Rs 16,447 a kg, two-third of the current level. Thus, “it shouldn’t surprise when investors and consumers liquidate silver holdings at current prices or exchange it against new jewellery”.

Globally over half of silver is used for industrial purposes; here, however, only 20 per cent is estimated for industrial use.