Slow output growth, demand rise to cause rubber shortage

India may face a shortage of natural rubber (NR) by 2014-15, according to trade estimates.

The apprehension flows from the current slow growth in the internal production of rubber and the sharp increase in domestic consumption. The trade says India would require 1.2 million tonnes of rubber by 2015, but the production is unlikely to exceed a million tonnes, given the current growth in production. The country achieved a 4.7 per cent rise in production, at 864,500 tonnes, in 2008-09 and consumption grew by 1.2 per cent to 871,720 tonnes.

Consumption has been higher than production for the past few years and the shortage is being met through imports. The average rate of increase in production is estimated at 3.5–4 per cent for the next five to six years.

During April–August this year, production fell 13 per cent to 273,575 tonnes, but consumption increased by 2.1 per cent to 376,350 tonnes. In April–September, production dropped by 12.4 per cent, while consumption rose by 2.5 per cent.

It is also estimated that India would require two million tonnes of NR by 2020.

The main reason for the low growth in production is slow rise in acreage in Kerala, where 92 per cent of India’s rubber is grown. There is a problem in getting vast areas of land for plantation crops like rubber; fresh planting is also low in Kerala.

Realising this, the Rubber Board now concentrates more on the northeast states. However, productivity is lower there. In 2008-09, the estimate of total area under rubber cultivation in India is 662,000 hectares, with 4.2 per cent annual growth. The average per hectare productivity is 1,867 kg annually. But in the northeast, this is below 1,000 kg.

Another issue is the ageing of trees in most parts of Kerala. Due to a number of reasons, re-plantation has also been affected. And, it requires six to seven years after replantation before tapping can be renewed. A serious shortage of labourers is another problem in Kerala; handling labour is not easy there and the wages are high.