Tata Motors Q3 preview: Automaker may return to profit on better JLR show

In the previous fiscal quarter, the automaker had reported net revenue of Rs 77,001 crore and a staggering loss of Rs 26,961 crore

Tata Motors is expected to report a stable performance for the quarter ending December, 2019 when it announces its numbers today, with JLR's strong performance and rupee depreciation lifting the company back into the black. Consolidated revenue, on the other hand, might dip primarily due to weakness in the India business.

As per the monthly sales data, Tata Motors' domestic sales volume (MHCV + PV) declined 25 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to 1.3 lakh units while JLR volumes are expected at 1.43 lakh units, up 1.3 per cent YoY. Analysts at ICICI Securities expect Tata Motors to report 2.3 per cent YoY dip in revenues at Rs 75,252.4 crore, while profit after tax (PAT) is seen at Rs 766.5 crore, largely due to sequential growth in volumes and benign raw material costs. 

In the corresponding quarter of the last fiscal, the Tata Motors had reported a net revenue of Rs 77,001 crore and a staggering loss of Rs 26,961 crore. Reliance Securities expects a strong performance by JLR to push Tata Motors'  profit to Rs 1,524.7 crore while revenue may slip to Rs 76,2057 crore, down 0.9 per cent on a YoY basis.

Kotak Securities sees a 2.4 per cent YoY dip in Tata Motors' Q3 revenue at Rs 75,071.2 crore while PAT is pegged at Rs 1,073 crore. According to the brokerage, on a standalone basis, the company's revenues is seen declining by almost 24 per cent YoY while EBITDA margin may also slip due to increase in discount levels and negative operative leverage.

"JLR is expected to post a better performance. Average sale price will likely increase by 5 per cent yoy due to richer geographical mix (higher revenue contribution from China) and richer product mix (higher Land Rover mix in the overall volume mix) in 3QFY20. We expect reported EBITDA margin to improve by 610 bps yoy due to the company's cost-reduction efforts and better mix. We build in hedged forex loss of GBP150 mn in our estimates for 3QFY20," the brokerage said.

Margin improvement

On the operational front, Kotak Securities expects Tata Motors to report 41.8 per cent YoY growth in earnings before interest, depreciation, and ammortisation (Ebitda) to Rs 8,442.6 crore while Ebitda margin is pegged at 11.2 per cent, up 350 bps YoY.

ICICI Securities sees the company's Q3FY20 EBITDA at a higher Rs 9,380 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 12.5 per cent. The brokerage said that the sustainability of margins at JLR will be the key monitorable for the quarter.

During the three-month period between October and December 2019, shares of Tata Motors outperformed the market by surging 60 per cent as compared to Sensex's 7.69 per cent gain in the same period.