Watch the 15,200 mark

WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The markets ended the week on a negative note amid high volatility. After tumbling at the beginning of the week, the bourses staged a dramatic recovery mid-week only to falter towards the end.

The Sensex, however, ended with a modest loss of 215 points at 15,760 after having swung 1,454 points. The index touched a high of 16,683 and slipped to a low of 15,229 during the week.

Technology stocks were the major losers, with Wipro and Satyam declining by 11 per cent each. TCS and Infosys fell around 5 per cent each.

Maruti, Tata Steel, Hindalco, BHEL, SBI and HDFC were the other major losers among the index stocks. On the other hand, ACC soared 9 per cent. Ranbaxy, NTPC and ONGC were the other major gainers, appreciating by over 5 per cent each.

The Sensex's low of 15,229 was exactly at the yearly S3 (support) level of 15,200 mentioned last week. The 15,200-mark on the downside and the 16,650 point on the upside will be crucial index levels for the rest of the month.

Break of the 15,200 level would see the index slide all the way to 12,100 in the coming days, with some support around the 13,900-level.

Volatility would remain considerably high due to the holiday-shortened week, with markets remaining open only for three days.

The Nifty moved in a range of 439 points. From a high of 5,019, the index slipped to a low of 4,580 and finally ended with a marginal loss of 26 points at 4,746.

The markets continue to remain bearish, with the index languishing below its 200-DMA (daily moving average). The long-term (200-DMA) is 5,077. The short-term (20-DMA) is 5,049 and the mid-term (50-DMA) is 5,331.

The Nifty is likely to find support around 4,580-4,525-4,475 and face resistance around 4,915-4,965-5,020 this week.