Wkly Tech Analysis: Nifty resistance likely at 3,200

The Sensex ended higher for the second straight week on Friday on the back of selective buying. The index began the week with a bang and touched a high of 10,945, before paring gains and slipping to a low of 9,632. The Sensex finally ended the week with a gain of 176 points at 9,964.

Whether or not the recent low of 7,697, is a bottom or not can be confirmed only if the index moves up above the 12,100-mark. Since we are closer to the year-end, we will only look at the short-term picture.  As long as the Sensex stays above 8,980, the recent low can be assumed to be a bottom. However, a break of this level could see the index retesting its recent low and it may even drift lower towards the 7,000-mark.

On the upside, the 12,100-mark would be a key resistance. As and when the index breaks this mark, it may see a strong upmove towards the 15,000-mark. This week, the index may face resistance in the 10,730-11,000 zone. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around the 9,100-level.
 

KEY LEVELS
	Sensex	Nifty
S3	9150	2735
S2	9300	2785
S1	9460	2830
Close	9964	2973
R1	10465	3120
R2	10620	3165
R3	10780	3210
S-Support level R-Resistance level

The Nifty, the NSE index, moved in a range of 380 points. From a high of 3,241, the index dropped to a low of 2,860 and then rebounded and finished with a gain of 87 points at 2,973. The Nifty chart looks better when compared to the Sensex. It suggests that the bottom is probably in place, for this year at least. In case of a downturn, the index is likely to find support around the 2,500-mark.

On the upside, as long as the index stays above 2,930, it has potential to rally up to 3,500 in the short term.

The bollinger bands suggest a wide trading range of 2,500-3,580. The short-term (20-day) daily moving average (DMA) is at 3,038. Once the index closes above this level, it can then test its mid-term (50-day) DMA, which is placed at 3,696. This week, the index is likely to face resistance around 3,120-3,200, while support on the downside is around 2,830-2,740.