RBI Lowers Growth Projection To 7%; Retains Inflation Forecast At 6.7% For FY23

The Reserve Bank of India's MPC decided to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth. In the MPC's view, inflation is likely to be above the upper tolerance level of 6 per cent through the first three quarters of 2022-23, with core inflation remaining high. The outlook is fraught with considerable uncertainty, given the volatile geopolitical situation, global financial market volatility and supply disruptions. Meanwhile, domestic economic activity is holding up well and is expected to be buoyant in H2:2022-23, supported by festive season demand amidst consumer and business optimism.

Elevated imported inflation pressures remain an upside risk for the future trajectory of inflation, amplified by the continuing appreciation of the US dollar. The outlook for crude oil prices is highly uncertain and tethered to geopolitical developments, with attendant concerns relating to both supply and demand. Inflation is projected at 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, with Q2 at 7.1 per cent; Q3 at 6.5 per cent; and Q4 at 5.8 per cent, and risks are evenly balanced. CPI inflation for Q1:2023-24 is projected at 5.0 per cent. Meanwhile, headwinds from geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions and the slowing external demand pose downside risks to net exports and hence to India's GDP outlook. Real GDP growth for 2022-23 is projected at 7.0 per cent with Q2 at 6.3 per cent; Q3 at 4.6 per cent; and Q4 at 4.6 per cent, and risks broadly balanced. For Q1:2023-24, it is projected at 7.2 per cent. The MPC is of the view that further calibrated monetary policy action is warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored, restrain the broadening of price pressures and pre-empt second round effects. The MPC feels that this action will support medium-term growth prospects.

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