India, China rise set to shake global order: US think tank

In the coming decades, "as the two powers grow, they are bound to change the current international system-with profound implications for themselves, the US, and the world," says a new publication of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"And whether they agree on the changes to be made, especially when it comes to their relationship with the West, will influence the system's future character," says the publication, "Crux of Asia: China, India, and the Emerging Global Order".

A close examination of Chinese and Indian perspectives on the fundamentals of the emerging international order reveals that Sino-Indian differences on many issues of both bilateral and global significance are stark, it says.

"China and India's sustained economic growth fuels their increasing geopolitical and military influence," says the publication edited by Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate, and Sean Mirski, a junior fellow respectively in the Carnegie South Asia Programme.

Despite their developmental similarities, China and India's bilateral strategic rivalry means that they have competing priorities on most major global issues, the publication says.

Sino-Indian differences are considerable on issues relating to the nonproliferation system, Asian security, regional stability in Southern Asia, and security in the maritime commons, space, and cyberspace, it says.

But the two rising powers broadly agree on matters relating to the international economic system, energy security, and the environment.

"Because of its ongoing shift to the Asia-Pacific and status as the only global superpower, the US must manage a complex set of relationships with China and India, which are at times working at cross-purposes," the publication says.

Both China and India want a stable Asia-Pacific that will allow them to sustain their economic prosperity, but they perceive threats very differently and have divergent priorities.

"Importantly, India seeks a resolute American presence in the region to hedge against possible Chinese excesses, while China sees the US as significantly complicating its pursuit of its regional goals and worries about American containment attempts," the publication says.

(Arun Kumar can be contacted at arun.kumar@ians.in)