Bihar's Jungle Raj: Little change in crime trends belies popular perception

Contrary to narrative of return of jungle raj, data shows long-term trend in crime hasn't changed much

We encountered the narrative of the “Return of Jungle Raj” many times during the course of our 10-day journey late last year during the Bihar Assembly elections. A local journalist told us in Siwan, a city made infamous by criminal-turned-MP Shahabuddin, that “the henchmen of Shahabuddin became active the day Nitish Kumar decided to form an alliance with Lalu Prasad. What law and order? You will hardly see anyone venturing out after 7 PM now,” he told us.

Even as the conversation was on, we saw two women walking in to have dinner at the restaurant we were sitting in at 9 p.m. When asked how this was possible, the local journalist said “Abhi to sab theek hi hai lekin ye jyada din tak theek nahin rehne wala hai (Things are alright at the moment but they are not going to stay this way for much longer).”

I was therefore not surprised to see general commentary after some recent incidents of loot and murder. There have been a few incidents in the last few months — the murder of a trader in Muzaffarnagar, of two engineers in Darbhanga, the looting of a bank branch in Champaran, and the fleeing of a criminal from a police station in Purnia, among others – that have brought the narrative alive.

It is not uncommon to see reports suggesting that Bihar is about to re-enter the so-called dark age where the rule of law is a big casualty. The ‘jungle raj’ refers to the period of 15-year rule of Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Lalu is now an ally of chief minister Nitish Kumar and the RJD part of the government.

Very unfortunate and deplorable as these recent incidents are, has the long-term trend changed in Bihar? Data do not suggest so, at least not yet. The total number of cognisable offences that took place in 2014 were 195,024. The number marginally went up to 195,397, an addition of 373 cases, in 2015.

What’s more, in the last six months of 2015, the period when the narrative of the return of ‘jungle raj’ was at its loudest, the number of registered cases fell by 3,574 compared to the same period the previous year. Official data clearly show that the law and order machinery in the state is working very much like what it has been in the past few years.

Commentators apprehending the return of lawlessness would argue that official data don’t quite gauge the fear factor. That the perception of lawlessness has begun to take roots. But what if such perception is only in reaction to some of the recent cases?

There is no denying that official data on crime do not reveal the entire picture. It does, however, show a trend. And the long-term trend on the law and order situation in Bihar has not changed despite realignment of political forces.