China's rise and its challenges

For a political dispensation that has long relied on providing high economic growth rates to sustain political legitimacy, the current slowdown is a huge problem

China celebrated 70 years of Communist party rule this week with great pomp and circumstance, showcasing its growing prowess with the military parade of troops and weapons including new hypersonic drones and intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to China’s Ministry of National Defence, 15,000 military personnel along with 580 pieces of military equipment and 160 aircraft participated in the parade. Chinese President Xi Jinping who is now almost as powerful and influential as Mao marked the occasion with a speech which was as much directed to the domestic as it was to the global audience. From the same spot where Mao had announced the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949, Xi asserted that “there is no force that can shake the status of this great nation. No force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation forging ahead”.

Mao’s legacy remains contentious as tens of millions of people died during his catastrophic Great Leap Forward, and the country was plunged into violent chaos during the decade-long Cultural Revolution. It was after his death in 1976 that Deng Xiaoping pursued economic reforms resulting in the dramatic rise of China to its present day status of a global economic superpower. The last four decades have seen China launch serious market reforms, thereby opening up its economy to the wider world and lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It is a remarkable story of a nation’s rise amidst major challenges, of a country emerging from being one of the poorest to one virtually setting the global economic agenda today. Beijing is today focused on the next phase of its global economic evolution by presenting to the world an ambitious vision of global infrastructure and connectivity — the Belt and Road Initiative. It remains very controversial and is facing a number of challenges but there is no denying the fact that it has transformed global conversation on connectivity, forcing major global powers to present their own versions as alternatives. 

As Xi Jinping has consolidated power over the last few years, he has repeatedly underlined the need to resurrect the “Chinese dream” — of a nation that remains keen to return to its former glory. Under Xi, China’s old reticence of acknowledging its rise is gone and a new assertion of its global standing is quite evident. For the Chinese Communist Party, it is imperative that its own centrality in the evolution of China as a prosperous and powerful country is underscored. That, after all, is the raison d’être of its existence. And so far it has been quite successful in managing the nation’s affairs, having now outlived the Soviet Union. 

A float featuring China’s national emblem travels past Tiananmen Gate during the parade celebrating 70 years of Communist party rule in Beijing. Photo: Reuters

The CCP would be hoping that the 70th anniversary celebrations would further consolidate its hold, enhancing its legitimacy and generating popular support at a time when a range of challenges have emerged to confront China, both economically and politically. The Trump administration has overturned decades of political consensus in Washington about integrating China in the global order. It is now openly confronting China at multiple levels. Most significant of the problems is in trade where the tariff war between the two most powerful economic powers has escalated. China’s economy has been hurt and its growth rate has fallen. For a political dispensation that has long relied on providing high economic growth rates to sustain political legitimacy, this is a huge problem. 

Strategically, China is now facing a stronger pushback in the wider Indo-Pacific where regional powers are arranging themselves in new coalitions to challenge China’s aggressive projection of its power. Like-minded countries see a need for a new security architecture in the region which can manage China’s rise. While a formal system will take time to emerge, informal coalitions are now growing in number and issue-based coalitions are the norm. It is clear that China’s assertiveness will not go unchallenged. 

Perhaps most significantly for China it is the problems in what it considers to be its core interests that are becoming difficult to handle. Beijing’s handling of its Uighur minority in Xinjiang region is now being widely criticised. In Taiwan, there is growing distrust about Beijing’s motivation and anti-Beijing political leadership is gaining in support. And in Hong Kong, China is facing a crisis unlike any it has faced since the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. 

In his speech, Xi promised to “maintain the long-term prosperity and stability” of Hong Kong and to uphold the political framework of “One Country, Two Systems” which gives the city limited autonomy. If anything, it should have been clear to Beijing by now that the model proposed by him is actually no longer working in Hong Kong. Anti government protests that started off targeting the controversial extradition bill have morphed into something much bigger. And that anger will now continue to shape Hong King’s future engagement with Beijing. Even as China was celebrating this week, protests in Hong King took a turn for the worse when a teenager was shot dead by the police.

So as China celebrates a major milestone in its political evolution, its political leadership is facing a domestic and global landscape that has altered significantly in the last few years. How deftly these challenges are managed will determine the future trajectory of China’s rise. 

The writer is professor of International Relations, Department of Defence Studies, King’s College, London