Floods are not uncommon in India. Nor, for that matter, are droughts. But if these occur at places where these are least expected, there surely is an element of abnormality about them. Two cases in point are the recent floods in Rajasthan that have transformed the hard-core desert into a region of unwanted lakes, and the drought-like conditions in the otherwise wet mountains of the north-east. The floods in Jammu and Kashmir, too, fall in a somewhat similar category. Equally significant is the freakish behaviour of the monsoon witnessed in recent years, for, it distinctly differs from the usual range of weather aberrations. This is reflected this season in the monsoon intensifying towards the end of August and even in September, when it should normally be withdrawing. The fact that monsoon predictions based on statistical models go awry year after year is another indication of the monsoon not adhering to established patterns. Notably, some of the droughts in the recent past have occurred in July, which traditionally has been a period of heavy rainfall. Similarly, foggy spells in winters, too, are now more intense, prolonged and frequent than in the past. And so are the unusually high temperatures in February-end and March that cause crop losses. | |
| All this conforms to the scare scenarios projected by theorists on climate change. As such, there is the clear need to ponder over whether the climate change that has been a global reality, has reached India's doorstep. The international climate-monitoring agencies have long been cautioning the world about such catastrophes. For instance, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) minced no words in pointing out that the kind of devastating floods that normally occurred in the past, say, once in 100 years would begin occurring every 10 or 20 years if the pace of climate change remained unchecked. |
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| A ray of hope was generated in the late 1990s, when global studies captured the beginning of the process of healing the damaged ozone layer, which protects the earth from excessive solar radiation. That even led to the conclusion that the ozone layer might be fully restored to its original dimensions by around the middle of this century. This optimistic scenario was attributed mainly to the impact of the Montreal Protocol of 1987 on discontinuing the use of substances that depleted the ozone layer. For that, it mooted phasing out the production and use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and other substances like fluorine, bromine and halons that might contain or produce chlorine. Fortunately, these commitments have been complied with by most signatories to this protocol. However, what is worrisome is that a good amount of these CFCs still exist, stored in gadgets like refrigerators and air-conditioners that are still in operation, and which will be released into the atmosphere in the coming years, to thereby cause a delay in repairing the damaged layer. It would, thus, be appropriate for the parties to the Montreal Protocol, which are holding their next annual meeting in New Delhi in end-October, to chalk out the ways to deal with this issue. At the same time, the negotiations for setting the targets for harmful emission reductions under Phase II of the Kyoto treaty on climate change, which has to come into force on the expiry of the present accord in 2012, need to be speeded up. There is no time to waste. |
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